HR Ratings lowers growth forecast to 1.4% for Mexico in 2024

The forecast for 2025 was also cut to 1.1% from 1.8%, due to the adjustment in public spending, the uncertainty surrounding the change of administration and the approval of the reforms.
constitutional.

For this year, the revision also incorporates the volatility observed in the global environment, which would imply greater trade tensions with the United States in the coming months, the country’s main trading partner.

“This translates into a lower demand for goods caused by trade barriers for Asian companies established in Mexico, specifically within the manufacturing sector,” the rating agency said.

Another factor that he highlighted is the weakness that the formal market has shown in job creation compared to the previous two years.

“According to our estimates, between 250,000 and 300,000 IMSS-affiliated jobs could be created in 2024, which is the lowest number since 2009, excluding the pandemic period in 2020.”

In the unemployment rate section, a moderate increase is being observed in the unemployment rate reported by Inegi, reaching 2.9% from 2.6% at the end of 2023.

The weakness in consumption is also reflected in less credit granted on cards, payroll and personal loans, which have shown a deterioration compared to the end of 2023.

“The reduction in consumption levels was surprising, since in February the advance payment of social programs was made,” he said.