A photo of Donald Trump defiantly raising his fist moments after being grazed in the ear by a bullet from a would-be assassin instantly went viral, sparking speculation that the July 2024 assassination attempt could finally boost his electoral chances.
Although four presidents have been assassinated while in office and many others have been the targets of assassination attempts, Trump joins a smaller list of presidents and presidential candidates who have been wounded and survived. Their stories, however, reveal a more complex picture of political violence and its impact on both candidates and voters.
Theodore Roosevelt
The former governor of New York had become president in the wake of an assassination, taking office when William McKinley was assassinated six months into his presidency by anarchist Leon Czolgosz.
After serving nearly one full term and being re-elected to another, Roosevelt had declined to seek a third, but later changed his mind when he began to feel that his successor, William Howard Taft, was moving in the wrong direction.
After losing the Republican Party primary in 1912, Roosevelt ran for a third presidential term under his own newly founded Progressive Party.
As he was about to deliver a speech in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Roosevelt was shot by a former waiter who suffered from hallucinations and delusions of grandeur. Because the bullet hit an eyeglass case and a 50-page speech hidden in his jacket, it lodged in Roosevelt’s chest without hitting any major organs, and he went on to deliver his speech for 90 minutes before receiving medical attention.
The event added to the former president’s reputation as a rugged outdoorsman, earning him the nickname “Bull Moose.” But it wasn’t enough to win him the election.
Despite running one of the strongest third-party candidacies in American history, Roosevelt was defeated by Democratic candidate Woodrow Wilson.
George Wallace
By the time he launched his 1972 presidential campaign, George Wallace had served as governor of Alabama and had earned a reputation as a staunch supporter of racial segregation and an outspoken opponent of the civil rights movement.
Now, however, Wallace was running as a moderate and was on track to win the Democratic Party primary. The candidate had just finished giving a speech at a shopping mall in Laurel, Maryland, when unemployed drifter Arthur Bremer shot him four times, hitting him in the chest and abdomen.
Bremer’s writings indicated that he was primarily seeking fame rather than any political goals.
Wallace’s life was saved in an emergency operation, but one of the bullets struck his spine, paralyzing him for life. And while the assassination attempt elicited sympathy from allies and rivals, the extent of Wallace’s injuries severely weakened him and left him unable to campaign effectively.
After George McGovern claimed the nomination, Wallace continued in politics, running unsuccessfully for president once more and serving two more terms as governor of Alabama.
But the incident left a more unexpected impact. During his hospitalization, Shirley Chisholm, the first black woman elected to Congress and one of Wallace’s opponents for the Democratic nomination, visited him.
Wallace was reportedly deeply moved by the gesture. Over the next few years, he publicly recanted his segregationist views while appointing a record number of black officials to government posts.
Ronald Reagan
On March 30, 1981, Republican President Ronald Reagan, two months into his first term, gave a speech to union representatives at the Washington Hilton hotel in the nation’s capital. As he walked to his limousine and waved to the crowd, John Hinckley Jr. fired six shots from a .22-caliber revolver. Reagan was hit by a bullet that ricocheted off the presidential limousine, striking him under the left armpit and entering one of his lungs. A Secret Service agent, a D.C. police officer, and White House Press Secretary James Brady were wounded in the attack.
Hinckley, 25, hoped the shooting would bring him notoriety and impress actress Jodie Foster, whom he had never met but was obsessed with.
Reagan was rushed to a nearby hospital and underwent emergency surgery. Despite being close to death, the 70-year-old president remained upbeat and projected an image of good health throughout the ordeal.
While the resulting public sympathy raised his already high approval ratings At 68%, his re-election campaign was still three years away. In the intervening time, his ratings fell to a low of 35% before improving again in the run-up to the 1984 election.
Conclusion
Although political candidates may receive an initial boost in the polls after surviving an assassination attempt, history shows that this effect is usually limited and temporary.
And while most people oppose political violence in principle, polls have shown that support for political violence has increased in recent years, with more than 20% of Americans believing it may be justified.
As authorities search for a motive in the attack on Trump by 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, it will be difficult to discern the electoral impact of this stunning turn in an already unpredictable campaign season.
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