New York ( Business) — It’s barely October, but the end of the year discounts are already here with retailers taking out the Christmas trees, turning on the Christmas music and promoting their deals from now until January.
Only this month, there “Deal Days” from Target, Walmart’s “Rollbacks and More,” Best Buy’s “Flash Sale” and a new Amazon Prime Day-like event. Black Friday deals will come much earlier, weeks before the end-of-the-year shopping, then come the December deals, and lastly, the sales.
Navigating all those promotions can be confusing for customers.
And that’s even more true this year, with chains heavily incentivized to offer holiday deals as they have excess inventory and inflation is hitting customers’ wallets.
Adobe predicts that almost a third of online merchandise in all categories will be marked down. The company uses a combination of historical price trends, its monthly online price index, and pre-holiday price changes to forecast discounts for the season.
Smart shopping may seem more challenging in this environment, but retail analysts and researchers have advice for deciding when and what to buy.
Check price history
First, a word of advice for all product categories: Evidence suggests that some consumers tend to think that a promotion means a big drop in price, so react and they buy without determining the true price. Sometimes stores raise the prices of a product briefly before putting it on “sale.”
“Just because it’s a deal doesn’t mean it’s a good deal,” said Edgar Dworsky, a consumer advocate who founded ConsumerWorld.org, a resource for shoppers.
Dworsky and others recommend using websites like Camel Camel Camel or Honey, free browser extensions that display price histories on Amazon and let shoppers set price-drop alerts to find out what a deal really is.
Wait in the clothes
The new down jacket you’re eyeing is more likely to be found cheaper later: Winter merchandise gets cheaper later in the season, said Ashok Lalwani, a marketing professor at Indiana University who studies pricing. .
Clothing retailers offer bigger discounts when they need to get rid of things from one season to move on to the next, because carrying inventory is expensive and fashion trends can change, he said.
Clothing promotions are expected to be particularly strong this holiday season compared to a year ago. Gap, Kohl’s, Nike and other brands have a surplus of clothing and are discounting it to attract customers.
“We expect the broader market to be more promotional until the end of the holiday season,” Levi’s chief financial officer, Harmit Singh, said on Thursday.
Shop electronics and toys on Black Friday
The best time of year to buy new electronics and toys remains around Black Friday, analysts say.
Retailers have trained shoppers over the years to look for deep discounts on TVs, game consoles, laptops, and other electronics on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. So if electronics deals aren’t strong on those days, retailers risk disappointing consumers.
“Consumers will no longer expect those deals for years to come,” Lalwani said, and retailers will struggle “to entice consumers into their stores on future Black Fridays.”
Adobe said Thanksgiving will be the best day to find discounts on electronics, while Black Friday will offer the best deals on TVs. If you’re looking to buy a computer, Adobe said, shop on Cyber Monday.
Look at the price after buying
Even after you’ve purchased a product, you may still be able to get a bigger discount.
Track prices online, and if an item falls below the amount you bought it for, some retailers will refund the difference, Dworsky said.
Many major retailers have extended their holiday price match policies to cover a longer period of time.
For example, for items purchased at a Target store or online on or after October 6, consumers can request a price match if the price drops on or before December 24. Purchases made at Walmart on or after October 1 can be returned through January 31.
So make sure you are a smart shopper even after you buy.
Underscored Senior Editor Chelsea Stone contributed to this article.
