How the Colombian economy will fare in the remainder of 2024

The Colombian economy had a particular performance in the first half of the year, period in which monetary policy interest rates continued their downward trend, as did inflation.

However, the general behavior of the economy, although it is showing green figures in the current year, The truth is that these do not reach those of last year, which is a clear indication of a situation of economic slowdown..

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Against this, Fedesarrollothrough its most recent Financial Opinion Surveyannounced its outlook for the remainder of the year, in which factors such as interest rates, the growth of the economy, inflation, the behavior of oil prices, and the representative market rate (TRM) of the Colombian peso against the US dollar.

In June, the growth forecast for 2024 ranged between 1.3% and 1.5%, with 1.3% as the median response (declining slightly from the 1.4% expected in May). The median for 2025 was 2.5% (stable compared to the previous month), ranging between 2.0% and 2.7%.

(Read: Colombia remains among the most unequal countries in Latin America).

Growth expectations for the second quarter of 2024 for Fedesarrollo experts are They placed the response in a range between 0.9% and 1.5%, with 1.2% as the median responseup from 1% in the May edition. The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2024 was set at 1.5%.

Inflation

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In May, annual inflation stood at 7.16%, slightly above analysts’ forecast (7.14%). In June, analysts expect inflation to stand at 7.12%, in a range between 7.07% and 7.16%.

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The analysts They expect inflation to close at 5.65% in December 2024 (up from 5.60% in May), in a range between 5.50% and 5.88%, so expectations remain outside the target range of the Bank of the Republic (between 2 and 4%). For its part, 12-month expectations (as of June 2025) are at 4.32%.

Petroleum

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In May, Brent crude oil benchmark closed at US$78.4showing a monthly drop of 12.4% and lower by $5.6 dollars compared to what analysts expected (US$84). In June, analysts consider that the price of oil will be in a range between US$81 and US$85, with US$83 as the median response.

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By the end of 2024, They expect a price of US$82 (down from the May edition, where a price of US$85 was expected).

Dollar

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In May, the exchange rate closed at $3,874with a monthly appreciation of 0.01%, reaching its maximum value of the month on May 9 ($3,902) and its minimum value on May 16 ($3,825). The observed figure was US$26 lower than expected in the May survey ($3,900).

In June, analysts consider that the exchange rate will be in a range between $4,016 and $4,121, with $4,100 as the median response. By the end of 2024, They expect an exchange rate of $4,080, which shows a slight increase compared to the previous month’s forecast ($4,000).

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