How Russia’s ‘dark money’ could rig Moldova’s presidential election

() – Moldovans vote this Sunday in the second round of a crucial presidential election, which could determine whether the post-Soviet country continues its course towards Europe or falls back into the Kremlin’s orbit.

Maia Sandu, the pro-Western president, is seeking re-election after bringing Moldova closer than ever to the European Union (EU), while Russia’s war in Ukraine raged near her eastern border.

Sandu achieved 42% of the vote in the first round, which was held on the same day as a referendum on EU membership that passed by a razor-thin margin. Both votes were marred by a vast vote-buying scheme linked to the Kremlin, which Sandu said amounted to an “unprecedented assault” on Moldova’s democracy.

She faces Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former attorney general running for the pro-Russian Party of Socialists. If other pro-Kremlin parties support his candidacy, the second round will be extremely close.

In last Sunday’s presidential debate, Sandu – a Harvard-educated former World Bank official who has cut ties with Moscow – said Stoianoglo was a “Trojan Horse” seeking to infiltrate the country’s capital, Chisinau, on behalf of the Kremlin.

Analysts say this is not merely rhetoric. Valeriu Pasha, director of WatchDog.MD, a think tank, told that Sunday’s vote is about “whether we will have a president elected by the citizens or someone who wins because Russian dirty money paid for it.”

Before the vote last month, Ilan Shor, a Russian-backed oligarch, offered to pay people to work to elect a pro-Russian candidate and prevent the referendum from passing. Sandu said the scheme sought to bribe about 300,000 people — about 10% of the population.

Despite polls indicating he had just over 10% going into the election, Stoianoglo won over 26% of the vote in the first round. Both the Kremlin and Shor have denied interference, but Moldovan officials have warned that the second vote could also be subject to similar schemes.

However, beyond vote buying, analysts say the first round revealed genuine opposition to Sandu, whose first term has been marked by successive crises.

“First it was the Covid-19 pandemic, then it was Russia’s war in Ukraine, then it was the gas crisis,” Maksim Samorukov, a researcher at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told .

Although Sandu has weaned Moldova from Russian gas, this has come at a high cost for one of the poorest countries in Europe. Inflation skyrocketed to more than 30%, causing an increase in poverty.

Some have also criticized Sandu’s “cynical” decision to hold the EU referendum on the same day as the presidential elections, positioning herself as the only politician capable of bringing Moldova into Europe.

“The government’s plan was that the issue of European integration would increase support for Maia Sandu. It turned out the other way around: discontent with Maia Sandu dragged down support for European integration,” Samorukov said.

Stoianoglo is trying to capitalize on the discontent with Sandu by keeping a foot in both camps. He has called for a “reset” in relations with Moscow and has said he would be willing to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, while maintaining that he is committed to joining the EU.

As a result, their platform is a mix of contradictory policies, according to Samorukov: “Either you support European integration, or you want to promote cooperation with Moscow. It is very difficult to reconcile both.”

Still, Moldovan officials are prepared for a second round of voting marred by pro-Russian meddling. A defeat for Sandu would be a crushing blow to Moldova’s hopes for a European future.

A pro-Russian government could also mean more trouble in Transnistria, a separatist territory where some 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed. Officials have long questioned whether Transnistria could eventually become a second front in the war in Ukraine.

“The worst case scenario is that if they take full control of parliament, they gradually liquidate any democratic institution, including free and fair elections. After that, they will use Moldova as a support point behind Ukraine,” Pasha told .

Moldova’s elections will take place a week after those in Georgia, another formerly communist state where Russia seeks to maintain its influence.

After the increasingly autocratic Georgian Dream party claimed victory, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Russia had “won” in Georgia and is on track to do the same in Moldova. Sunday’s vote will determine whether he is right.