How ‘historic’ will Labour’s victory be? UK votes tired after 14 years of Tory rule

This Thursday, Britons are called to the polls to decide which party they want to lead the country. the next five years. To do this, citizens will vote in one of the 650 constituencies into which the United Kingdom is divided (between Scotland, Wales, England and Northern Ireland) to choose between the different candidates for the 650 deputies that make up the House of Commons (House of Commons), the backbone of the legislative power. Thus, it will be the formation that achieves the absolute majority (the 326 seats needed) the one in charge of forming a new government and presenting its leader as the new one premier.

Today, the question no longer seems to be so much who will win, but by how much. All polls point to “a historic victory” for the Labour Party and its leader, Keir Starmer, as the next occupant of 10 Downing Street. Virtually all the polls agree: Labour will achieve a historic victory with close to 40% of the votes and an absolute majority – if not a majority. supermajority– in the House of Commons. For example, the platform YouGov gives him 425 seats, the predictions website Electoral Calculation He talks about 470 seats and More in Common406.

This victory would put an end to 14 years of government torystrongly weakened by the Brexit and its economic consequencesthe management of the pandemic, the increase in the cost of living and the passing of five prime ministers, some of them fleeting in excess. In addition, the conservatives have been involved in numerous political scandals, such as the partygate Boris Johnson’s or the most recent, that of the bets of members of Sunak’s cabinet. The projections predict the collapse of the conservativeswith an average of 20% of the votes and between 108 and 61 seats (according to the survey), which would mean a loss of more than 200 deputies.

Sunak himself is aware that he has little to do. “Labour could get the largest majority any party has ever achieved “in the UK,” Sunak said less than 24 hours before the elections. A hard blow for his party that could end up being humiliating. As Sara de Diego explained in this newspaper, the defeat is not only expected to be historic, but could also mean a dishonorable end for Sunak, who might not keep his seat in Westminster for the Richmond & Northallerton constituency, in Yorkshire. To date, no one has premier has never lost his seat.

Sunak, Starmer and the populist revival

At 44, Rishi Sunak, the Conservative candidate and current Prime Minister, is entering these early general elections (expected in 2025). totally worn out.

The British are deeply dissatisfied with the government, especially because of the high cost of living, the endless waiting lists for the health system and many other socio-economic problems that have worsened since the United Kingdom left the European bloc. Added to this is the fact that the feeling of instability politics brought on by the fact that in this legislature alone there have been three prime ministers: Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak.

The latter, in fact, came to power in 2022, replacing his predecessor, who resigned after 49 days in office. due to the panic that it unleashed in the financial markets with his budget proposal. Since then, Sunak has made the fight against immigration his flagship policy… without much success.

His fixation on ending the arrival of immigrants to the country has led him to approve such controversial measures as Bibby Stockholm floating prison (which had to be evacuated due to a legionella outbreak) or the Rwanda Security Actwhich aims to deport asylum seekers arriving via the English Channel to the African country. And aims tobecause the first version of the plan was declared illegal by both the British Supreme Court and the European Court of Human Rights.

Last May, Sunak decided to bring forward the electionsjust hours after the statistics office reported that inflation had fallen to almost 2% year-on-year, compared with 11% when he took office. But those indicators were of little use to him. Two days later, A poll put Labour ahead with its biggest lead since November 2022, with 48 points, compared to 27 of the Tories.

The prestigious Former lawyer Keir Starmer61, is the Labour Party candidate. Unlike his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn, a leftist and internationalist who lost the general election five years ago, Starmer has turned his party around towards more centrist currents. He has placed economic growth, improved infrastructure and public transport, more investment in public health and education at the heart of his campaign, More taxes on large companies multinationals.

Both leaders have had to deal with the more radical factions of their parties. The conservatives have been largely overshadowed by the Star-studded comeback of populist Nigel Farageknown for being one of those responsible for the victory of brexit. With an anti-immigration and Eurosceptic rhetoric, this political agitator and his Reform UK party are fighting for third place with the centrist Liberal Democrats of Ed Davey, according to various polls on voting intentions. For his part, Starmer has had to face the former Labour leader Jeremy Corbynwho has presented himself as an independent after being expelled from the party.