The exhaustion experienced by both parties on the front, added to Donald Trump’s promises to end the war, brings the possibility of a high fire. The question is under what conditions it would be achieved and who would pay the political and strategic price of said agreement.
It seems to be taken for granted that there will be a stop the fire in Ukraine throughout this year. On January 28, the results of A wide survey Among experts on the most important risks for the European Union in 2025. According to respondents, the first, in terms of probability and impact, is a high heat to Russia. In other words, experts consider it a fairly probable fact. And quite negative. I think they are right. Let’s think about how to avoid it.
In the front, both parties have lost impulse after almost three years of intense fighting. A true carnage. Ukraine, despite its heroic resistance and counteroffensive, faces increasing limitations in armament, renewal of troops, and logistical support. Russia for its part is far from achieving its original strategic objective: the total control of Ukraine. He has not even been able to annex the four Oblasts (Donetsk, Luhansk, Jersón and Zaporiyia) who, unilaterally, declared Russian land. Both parties are far from reaching their goals. But both show will to continue fighting. Ukraine because not doing so is resigning to live on his knees. Putin because a defeat could mean the end of his career. But reality shows an exhaustion that brings the possibility of a high fire. The key question is in what terms it would be achieved and who would pay the political and strategic price of said agreement.
Putin’s plan: lick wounds and return to attack
For Kremlin, war is not a territorial issue, it has never been. There is no peace here for territories. On February 24, 2022 Putin was engaged in a geopolitical battle and for a new international order. Its objective remains to control Ukraine in its entirety and strip it of any sovereignty and independence viso. But his ability to sustain war effort depends on his pocket. Russia is already openly in a war economy. In other words, the resources produced by the country are destined to maintain the conflict. A war economy is not sustainable by definition. It is not designed to be. The only economic policy objective is to win the war. What happens when the goal is dilated too much in time? A war economy generates deep inflation and imbalances due to an allocation of resources completely alien to the growth or well -being of citizens. It has first effects – in the short term – of induced growth, but Russia has already passed that stage and the indicators deteriorate. Putin seems to have always thought that time plays in his favor, but in the medium term this is not so clear. To this is added the effect of sanctions. The debate about its effectiveness would give for many publications, but it is undeniable that sanctions and freezing of Russian assets in Western countries is limiting access to financing, technology, its ability to continue war, in short. Despite this, it is estimated that Russia has resources To maintain the war effort for at least 12 to 18 more months. But before exhausting that period Putin will look for a respite, a high fire.
What is far from being clear, and it is our great responsibility, is that Ukraine manages to resist, avoiding a military or economic collapse (a great “yes”, whose outcome depends on the continuous support of the West). This will force Moscow to look for that respite. But it will not be the end of Russian aggression. It will be just a strategic pause. Putin would use this truce to consolidate its control over occupied territories, reorganize their forces and prepare future aggressions.
It is to this scenario referred to by the surveyed by the EU Institute of Studies. The Kremlin would retain the occupied territories and strengthen its strategic position. A high fire in these terms would consolidate the annexations, further weaken Ukraine and entail a huge loss of international credibility. The message would be clear: it is legitimate to gain territories by force.
How to avoid this scenario? Two measures are necessary:
- Maintain the sanctions, including the freezing of Russian financial assets in the West
- Provide security guarantees to Ukraine, a clear commitment to military, financial and political support in the long term.
Only a high fire in these conditions will open the way for a future and stable peace.
Add Comment