The pro-Iranian movement raises the specter of war with Israel for control of the deposits and could paralyze Parliament by slowing down the process of appointing the next head of state. The clashes between Aoun and Mikati and the range of possible successors. The fear of the Maronite patriarch that electoral times will be “manipulated”.
Beirut () – On the eve of the arrival in Israel of US President Joe Biden, while the Russian-American rivalry is being consolidated due to the conflict in Ukraine, Hezbollah has raised its tone: “If Lebanon is prevented from using its resources of gas – declared its secretary general Hassan Nasrallah on the occasion of the 16th anniversary of the July 2006 war – we will not allow anyone to extract and sell the gas, regardless of the consequences”.
After sending three drones, a dozen days ago, to the area of the Israeli gas field of Karish, in northern Israel, Hassan Nasrallah threatened that his formation would start a war. The aim is to assert Lebanon’s rights over all the hydrocarbon reserves of the nearby Cana field (southern Lebanon), of which Israel claims 20% of the surface but Beirut fiercely defends, and from which it expects revenue estimated at 600 billion euros.
The option of war is openly brandished, although Washington and Brussels continue to seek regional stability that will allow them to supply Europe with gas from the Middle East, replacing Russian gas stained with Ukrainian blood.
Could the issue of the maritime border with Israel be a new card in Iran’s deck? The answer seems to be “yes”, and only in this perspective can some current Lebanese events be read, such as the forthcoming end of the presidential term of Michel Aoun (October 31, 2022), Hezbollah’s main Christian ally, and while Prime Minister Nagib Mikati has been tasked with forming a new government.
The Constitution states that President Aoun’s successor must be elected by Parliament during the month of September. The candidates who have possibilities to succeed him are, for the moment, the leader of the CPL Gebran Bassil, the leader of Zgharta, Sleiman Frangié (pro-Syrian), and the commander of the army, Joseph Aoun (who has no family ties with the president). , which is considered a compromise candidate. The leader of the Christian Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea, despite being a great elector, is not a candidate because his past as a militiaman prevents him from doing so.
Obviously, the respective approaches of the head of state and the prime minister in charge on the presidential deadline are diametrically opposed. In anticipation of a presidential election that he perceives as difficult, even dominated by chance, and to ensure the rise to power of his son-in-law Gebran Bassil, President Aoun wants to form a government that is representative of all communities. Knowing that said executive must also assume the prerogatives of the head of state in the event of a temporary vacancy in the presidential function.
For his part, having in hand both the letter of formation of the government and control of current affairs, Mikati is wary of this approach by the head of state and the prospect of a new six-year term of Hezbollah hegemony. Consequently, it proposes a limited review of the current formation and, in particular, the replacement of the Minister of Energy, Walid Fayad (close to President Aoun’s Free Patriotic Current), by the Sunni businessman Walid Sinno, considering that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calls for structural reforms, including in the electricity sector, to help Lebanon overcome its economic collapse.
In Mikati’s environment, they fear, even without openly admitting it, that the scenario that preceded the election of President Michel Aoun in 2016 will repeat itself. The appointment was preceded by two and a half years of presidential vacancy due to the repeated lack of a quorum that provoked the Shia tandem and the CPL. With the current Parliament, where no party has a majority, this scenario can be repeated, knowing that, if there is no consensus on the name of the head of state, the pro-Hezbollah camp could indefinitely paralyze all sessions for the election of the president for indefinite, preventing a majority present in the Chamber (65 deputies) and, consequently, the quorum being reached. In this sense, it is necessary to know that, to elect the Head of State in the first round, a two-thirds majority of the deputies is required.
The vacancy of the presidential office is also a matter of extreme concern in the Maronite Patriarchal See. “We refuse, as a Lebanese people – said the primate, card. Beshara Raï, on July 10 -, to allow the times of the presidential mandate to be manipulated. We have committed to respect the constitutional deadlines set for these elections, which must be held in a timely manner.” The cardinal went even further, warning against any temptation that President Aoun may have to be confirmed in office in the event of a lack of consensus on the name of his successor, a hypothesis that has already been rejected by the collaborators of the head of state. .
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