guide to understand the midterm elections

The future of the US Congress will be decided on November 8 in the mid-term elections. These elections allow us to measure the temperature of the political environment in the country. Generally, they disfavor the party of the president in power, since the balance of his first two years in office is sanctioned.

Joe Biden, wildly unpopular at the national level, managed to recover from his fall behind in the polls this summer, but days before the election, he is once again quite weak. The issues that matter most to Americans, such as inflation, insecurity and migration, traditionally favor the Republican Party. The latter has opportunities to win a majority in the lower house of the legislative power and even in the Senate.

The results will reveal whether there is a coexistence between the president and Congress and what balances of power will be formed.

They could also influence future legislation on key issues such as the carrying of weapons, abortion, social security, migration or the environment.

Finally, they will serve as a thermometer for both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump regarding the 2024 presidential elections, whose electoral campaign will begin progressively after the ‘midterms’.

What are midterm elections?

The legislative power is in charge of starting or stopping the projects that the president or the parties want to develop. It also exercises political control over the head of state and has the power to actively investigate him.

The House of Representatives has 435 deputies, elected for two years. Each state has a different number of representatives based on its population. The Senate is made up of 100 senators, elected for six years. Each of the 50 states elects two senators. Every two years, in the legislative elections, the entirety of the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate are renewed.

These elections are called ‘midterms’ because they come in the middle of the presidential term. This year, citizens will elect their 435 deputies and renew 35 Senate seats.

Currently, Joe Biden benefits from a majority in both chambers. In the House of Representatives, the Democratic Party has 220 seats, against 212 for the Republicans.

In the Senate, the Democrats hold 48 senators compared to 50 for the Republicans. However, two independent senators are allied with the Democrats and Vice President Kamala Harris can contribute a vote as Speaker of the Upper House, giving Democrats a narrow majority in the Senate.

The importance of governors and prosecutors

On November 8, 36 of the 50 state governors will also be elected. For many Americans, this election is as important or more important than the one in Congress.

Governors have executive power at the state level over a number of issues that do not belong to the federal government, including the budget, abortion, and environmental regulation.

In early November, 35 federal prosecutors will also be appointed, charged with enforcing the law at the state level and advising local government. In addition, 27 state secretaries (responsible for electoral processes) and 28 state treasurers will be appointed.

Some cities like Oklahoma City, Charlotte or Washington DC will also organize their mayoral elections.

And in parallel, on November 8 referendums will be held on the question of abortion in five states –California, Vermont, Michigan, Kentucky and Montana–, either to protect this right or to restrict it.

The Democratic Party, weakened during the ‘midterms’

As usual, the midterm elections are a difficult test for the party of the incumbent president. Generally, after two years of leadership, the president’s popularity tends to decline, and in legislative elections that mobilize little, the votes of the dissatisfied are not usually lacking.

According to ‘Reuters’, as of October 18, 54% of Americans disapproved of the president, an especially high rate for a White House leader.

Joe Biden managed to rise in the polls this summer after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the ‘Roe VS Wade’ case, which protected the right to abortion at the federal level, and after the numerous mass shootings that took place, being issues that favor the Democratic party. In fact, Biden campaigned in favor of abortion, promising that, in case of victory, he would protect this right at the federal level, trying to mobilize his electorate again.

However, as the election date approaches, Americans have turned their attention to other issues. First of all, with a record inflation rate since 1982 and a loss of purchasing power, what is most worrying is the economic situation. And traditionally, on economic issues, the American population trusts the Republican Party more.

In addition, the United States faces a wave of violence and high rates of migration, concerns that also favor this party. According to a recent poll published by ‘The New York Times’undecided voters are overwhelmingly turning to Republicans.

And indeed, the Republican Party campaigns on these sensitive issues. On his show page, ‘Commitment to America’ (Commitment to America), reads in the foreground “another Democratic term cannot be allowed”, taking as examples “twelve cities with record murder rates”; “60% increase in the price of gas”; or “3.5 million illegal crossings since Biden.”

Joe Biden, who was already having difficulties getting his bills passed in Congress, having a small majority and suffering from the division of his party, could be in an even more critical position after these elections.

What are the possible scenarios?

Although Biden’s party is expected to lose seats in Congress, this election remains unpredictable.

Democrats are unlikely to retain a majority in both chambers. Since 1860, 37 of the 40 midterm elections have resulted in the loss of the president’s party in the House of Representatives.

“It is likely that the Republicans will win the House of Representatives and it is possible that they will win the Senate, but their victory in the House of Representatives is much more likely than in the Senate,” explains Marie-Christine Bonzom, former BBC correspondent in Washington.

If Republicans win both chambers, they will have more room to maneuver to pass their bills and block Joe Biden’s. If they only win the House of Representatives, the balance of power will be more pronounced in the two chambers.

In both cases, the president will have to cohabit with the Republican party. That would force the two parties to negotiate and make concessions. However, the Republican camp could also choose to block Joe Biden’s entire agenda.

What could change if Republicans win a majority in Congress?

The political line of Congress will be defined by the results of these ‘midterms’. The Republican Party published a short political program that revolves around the economy, security, freedoms and accountability.

If Congress wins, it could be expected that security, the limitation of the right to abortion, migration or access to social security will be at the center of their concerns. They could also prevent Joe Biden from proposing legislation on the environment, gun control or government spending.

In general, in the event of a long Republican victory, the revenge of the Republican party on the Democrats is expected. Several members have already promised to launch an impeachment process against Joe Biden, investigate the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and his handling of Covid-19, as well as continue the investigation of his son, Hunter Biden, accused of tax evasion and money laundering.

Is American democracy in danger?

These elections are a reflection of the extreme polarization of the American political system that disappoints the population and endangers democracy in the country. A large part of Americans has no interest in these elections. The participation rate generally reaches low levels, about 40%.

According to ‘The New York Times’, 85% of the US population is dissatisfied with the direction of the country regardless of their political party. “Most Americans are tired of these two political parties, they don’t want Biden or Trump to be in the White House again, they want profound change,” says Bonzom.

The campaign has been marked by a very poor debate, in which the Republican camp focused almost all of its speech on criticism of Biden’s mandate. His ‘Commitment to the United States’ so far only brings together a page of proposals.

The political system is centered around two parties that have left no room for another voice to express itself. And both the Republican and Democratic camps use anti-democratic techniques to try to stay in power, whatever the cost.

Donald Trump did not recognize his defeat in the 2020 presidential elections and has been accused of having participated in the orchestration of the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.

In fact, there are “reports that show that nearly 300 Republican candidates continue to push the theory of false electoral fraud,” explains Robert Valencia, an international political analyst. But the Democratic Party has also been portrayed for actions that endanger democracy.

In August, ‘The New York Times’ published an article denouncing huge spending by Biden’s party to support pro-Trump candidates against more moderate Republicans, in order to more easily win their Democratic candidates in gubernatorial elections in historically liberal states.

Thus, in Maryland, some two million dollars were used in advertisements by the Democratic Governors Association to promote the candidacy of Dan Cox, a pro-Trump, who effectively won the primary. “Defeating moderate Republicans will not strengthen the nation,” criticizes the newspaper.

“These parties, with their cynical maneuvers, give the impression that they know that they can no longer win only with their merit, their ideas, proposals or candidates, they need maneuvers that would be illegal in other Western countries to stay in power,” says Marie- Christine Bonzom.

What is expected from this election is that the two parties work together and listen to the wishes of Americans, regardless of their political camp. These elections will set the tone for the 2024 presidential campaign, which will begin the day after the ‘midterms’ and which promises an arduous political struggle.

With AFP and local media