() — Guatemalans will go to the polls on June 25 to elect a new president, as regional observers warn of a downward spiral of kleptocracy and a weakening of the rule of law in Central America’s most populous nation.
The social democrat Sandra Torres, the right-wing Zury Ríos and the center-right Edmont Mulet lead the group of more than 20 applicants for president in the general election.
Other candidates, including left-wing indigenous leader Thelma Cabrera and, most recently, former frontrunner Carlos Pineda, were blocked from running, prompting accusations of political meddling against the country’s electoral tribunal.
“One thing we can say about Guatemala right now is that this Supreme Electoral Tribunal has a very suspicious pattern of removing any candidate who publicly supports the fight against corruption,” Will Freeman, a Latin America studies fellow, told . at the Council on Foreign Relations.
One of the expelled candidates, the right-wing Roberto Arzú, openly criticized President Alejandro Giammattei. The sanctioned candidate, Cabrera, openly criticized corruption in Guatemalan politics.
Pineda ran as an outsider in Guatemala’s entrenched power structure, frequently sharing his anti-establishment position in TikTok. After his disqualification, he concluded on Twitter: “Corruption won, Guatemala lost.”
The Constitutional Court said in a statement to that it adheres to the law and acts with “due diligence, impartiality, objectivity and independence.” has also reached out to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal for comment.
Employees of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) organize before the general elections in Guatemala City on June 20, 2023.
Credit: Johan Ordóñez/AFP/Getty Images
It is not the first time that Guatemala’s electoral court has ruled out presidential hopefuls, but this year’s cycle occurred in a rapidly shrinking civic space.
“The reason it feels very important this year is because we’ve seen a real backlash in Guatemala in recent years against a movement to fight corruption,” Caren Cissis, an expert on Central America and editor-in-chief of the Americas Society, told . /Council of the Americas.
Failed battle against corruption
Rights groups say corruption and impunity accelerated in the country after former President Jimmy Morales dissolved a United Nations-backed anti-corruption commission in 2019.
The International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) was created in 2006 to help dismantle influential criminal networks in the country. He assisted in hundreds of convictions, exposed a corruption scandal and is credited with helping reduce the country’s murder rate.
Since the dismissal of the CICIG, corruption has spread throughout the country’s justice systemsay the experts.
“Much of the Guatemalan justice system has been co-opted by a network of corrupt political, economic and military elites who seek to promote their own interests and carry out corrupt practices with impunity,” concludes one report 2022 Washington Office on Latin America, Latin America Task Force and Guatemala/US Commission on Human Rights.
Prosecutors and judges associated with CIGIG have been arrested, investigated, and many have been forced to flee the country under the current mandate of President Alejandro Giammattei.
When the country’s attorney general, Consuelo Porras Argueta, was re-elected in 2022 by the president, hours later she was sanctioned by the US for “her participation in significant corruption”, as indicated by Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State. .
Prominent Guatemalan journalist José Rubén Zamora is escorted by police to court for a hearing related to his trial on May 30, 2023. Credit:
Moises Castillo/AP
“During his tenure, Porras repeatedly obstructed and undermined anti-corruption investigations in Guatemala to protect his political allies and gain undue political favors,” the statement added.
Members of the media who took on corruption also dealt with legal consequences. Prominent Guatemalan journalist José Rubén Zamora, founder of the country’s main investigative newspaper that was shut down earlier this year, was sentenced to six years in prison for money laundering on Wednesday. Press rights groups have called it a stroke to the expression freedoom.
Corruption and poor governance are major factors driving migration, experts say, which is clearly at stake in Guatemala, home to Central America’s largest economy and yet the second-biggest country of origin for migrants finding themselves. at the US border, according to figures of the United States Border Patrol.
Giammattei’s press secretary has denied accusations that he interferes in the judicial process. “The Guatemalan government respects and strives to guarantee the freedom of journalism in the country,” Kevin López, President Giammattei’s press secretary, said in a statement to .
The candidates
The United States and its Western allies have expressed concern about the exclusion of presidential candidates in Guatemala. But regional observers speculate that excessive caution, a lack of focus on the Central American region and other foreign policy concerns have shifted priorities.
With migration a top concern in Washington as the US heads to the electoral cycle As of 2024, Freeman said the Biden administration has had to balance Guatemala’s position as a regional ally, especially in efforts to curb migration, against concerns about democratic backsliding in the country. “The Biden administration has been caught between a rock and a hard place,” Freeman said.
In April, US Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Brian Nichols highlighted US support for the “right of Guatemalans to free, fair, and peaceful elections,” saying that the democracy it depended on citizens being able to elect leaders “without arbitrary barriers, exclusion, or intimidation.”
Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei (left) and Guatemalan Attorney General María Consuelo Porras attend the presentation of the annual report of the Public Ministry in Guatemala City on May 17, 2023. Credit: Johan Ordóñez/ AFP/Getty Images
At least one of the remaining candidates appears willing to speak out about corruption.
The centrist Mulet, 72, has taken an outspoken stance against corruption in recent months. The technocrat, who has held legislative and diplomatic posts, including a stint as Guatemala’s ambassador to the United States, led United Nations agencies on Haiti and chemical weapons. His experience has added to the feeling that he is someone who could draw on that experience in Guatemala, according to Carin Zissis, Central America expert and editor-in-chief of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas.
He warned that Guatemala is moving towards an “authoritarian model” like Nicaragua, and told Agence-France Presse on Tuesday that Guatemala’s public institutions were “contaminated.”
Analysts point out that the centrist, who has proposed universal pension and youth unemployment bills, appears to be in a strong position to advance to a runoff scheduled for August 20, as “he is not seen as one of these deeply corrupt and entrenched,” Freeman said.
From left to right, Guatemalan presidential candidates Sandra Torres, Edmont Mulet and Zury Ríos. Credit: Getty Images/Reuters
He will have to beat Torres and Ríos, who have advocated strong-arm policies to tackle crime in the style of Salvadoran leader Nayib Bukele.
Torres seems to be in the lead, according to the polls. She has support among rural voters, garnered when she helped secure more cash transfers and benefits when she was first lady with former President Álvaro Colom, analysts say. Despite leading one of the oldest parties with the best resources in the country, “there is a hard and consolidated anti-vote” against him for his decision to divorce Colom in 2011, in a conservative and family-oriented country, according to Freeman. . Polls show that almost a third of the country will not vote for her.
Ríos is the daughter of former dictator Efraín Ríos Montt, who was convicted of genocide in 2013. She is popular with Guatemala’s strong evangelical community as she advocates for progressive causes such as women’s rights. Ríos denounced corruption during the candidacy, with a focus on incumbent Giammattei. Although analysts emphasize that she has the support of the country’s military and economic elite and that previously condemned CICIG before it lost its mandate.
However, no one knows if any of these candidates will be able to address the erosion of the rule of law in Guatemala once they come to power.
Commentators have lamented that his proposals have been flawed and overly simplistic, Zissis said. “And as a result, in a country that has such huge challenges, the question ends up being, what are these candidates going to do to solve the problems?”
