great victory for the opposition, but can he really govern?

First modification: 05/15/2023 – 12:15

By Carol Isoux, RFI correspondent in Bangkok

The biggest surprise of the elections was the victory of the Move Forward (MF) party, the youth formation. It was an orange tidal wave that swept the country. With at least 113 seats won, including all those in Bangkok, it appears to be the big winner of the election. Although polls predicted that MF would do well at the polls, the magnitude of the victory caught everyone by surprise, including perhaps its own very young leaders: no one in the party is over 40 and their political experience is limited.

The other winner – and this was more to be expected – is the Pheau Thai party, an opposition movement often reviled and defined as populist by its adversaries, which relies on the campaign vote of the rural sectors dedicated to the cultivation of rice and in large subsidies to the poorest. Between the two of them, these two parties have almost achieved an absolute majority in Parliament. The Bumjaithai party, led by the Minister of Health, which has largely focused its campaign on the issue of liberalizing the cannabis market, came in fifth place.

towards a coalition

Pheu Thai agreed on Monday to join a pro-democracy governing coalition led by Move Forward. They will have to agree on the fate of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, overthrown by the army and now in exile. The latter already announced a few days ago his willingness to return to Thailand next July, after 17 years of exile.

Above all, the former opposition parties will have to agree on the choice of a Prime Minister supported not only by the majority of the 500 members of Parliament, but also by the 250 senators who have been appointed by the pro-military government. . Move Forward party leader Pita Limjaroenrat said on Monday May 15 that he was “ready to become the next Prime Minister.”

Will the army and the pro-military parties accept their defeat?

The question is whether the army and the pro-military parties will accept their defeat. For now, the tone seems rather resigned among conservatives, but the army chief general warned a few days ago that soldiers could intervene if politicians did not respect Thailand’s fundamentals. It is a clear reference to the statements by the young leader of the Move Forward party, who indicated that he wanted to question the power of the army and the crime of lèse majesté.

The youth party has already been dissolved after the 2019 elections and its most charismatic leaders have been expelled from politics for 10 years. In turn, Pita Limjaroenrat, the young leader of the new version of the party, has been the victim of accusations of fraud for several weeks. If justice were to dissolve the party again after victorious elections, there is no doubt that young people, as in autumn 2020, would show their anger in the streets, thus giving the army a perfect pretext to intervene and restore calm.