Global climate change increases the risk of armed conflict

Climate change influences the likelihood of armed conflicts in Africa and their duration. This has been determined in a study carried out by a team from the INGENIO Institute (Institute for Innovation and Knowledge Management), a joint center of the Higher Council for Scientific Research (CSIC) and the Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV), in Spain, together with the University of Rome and the University of Urbino Carlo Bo, both in Italy.

The research team based their study on data from the African continent from 1990 to 2016. Applying a mathematical model of negative binomial regression, they evaluated whether certain climatic phenomena, in combination with the socioeconomic characteristics of the areas studied, affected the probability of an outbreak or not a conflict and, if it does, its duration.

Among its conclusions, the study assures that a prolonged increase in temperatures and rainfall increases between four and five times the probability of conflicts beyond the affected area, specifically in populations located within a radius of up to 550 kilometers.

On the other hand, the study also concludes that, in Africa, food shortages due to droughts increase the probability of a conflict breaking out, mainly if the lack of water persists for at least three years. On the contrary, excess rainfall triggers conflicts, but in a very short period of time.

“The results we have obtained have far-reaching implications for the territorial policies of the African continent. For example, changes in climatic conditions influence the probability of conflicts in large areas, which implies that the design of climate adaptation policies must take into account the particularities of each territory”, points out Davide Consoli, a researcher at the INGENIO Institute and one of the study authors.

A sector of the Sahara desert in Africa. (Photo: NASA / ISS / Expedition 66)

Likewise, the team also points out that the persistence of violence requires the implementation of adaptation strategies to climate change designed in conjunction with measures that favor the maintenance of peace, especially in those areas most prone to an armed conflict.

“These measures are essential in the design and implementation of adaptation strategies for climate resilience. In fact, poorly designed adaptation interventions can aggravate existing inequalities and increase the risk of conflict”, concludes Consoli.

The study is entitled “Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporary persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers”. And it has been published in the academic journal Political Economy. (Source: CSIC)