Giammattei in Taiwan: ‘China’s growing economic power is a challenge’

RFI: What does Giammattei’s visit to Taiwan represent, a few weeks after receiving President Tsai Ing-wen in Guatemala?

Jorge Malena: This goes far beyond formalities, in light of the fact that Guatemala, along with Belize, is one of the two Central American countries that still maintains diplomatic relations with the self-styled Republic of China in Taiwan. This is a relevant gesture on the part of the Guatemalan government in light of the fears in Taipei regarding the loss of even more diplomatic allies.

RFI: Is it known if President Tsai Ing-wen made any promises to Giammattei, or offered anything in return in the past? Taiwan has been quite generous with its allies, hasn’t it?

Jorge Malena: There is the so-called “dollar diplomacy”. But the authorities of both governments are very careful when making explicit the economic agreements reached. From what has transpired at the moment, a large-scale project to be carried out cannot be identified, but although the development of productive investments, the granting of credit and also the transfer of technology are always present.

RFI: Because there is a free trade agreement between Guatemala and Taiwan…

Jorge Malena: There is an initiative to promote free trade between both parties. The question always happens because, beyond the agreements that can be signed, there must be a sufficient exportable offer. In the specific case of Guatemala, as also happens with the other countries of Central America and the Caribbean that still have official ties with Taipei, basically the exportable basket is relatively scarce and has to do mainly with primary products. Any free trade agreement is not equitable in terms of trade terms, because obviously Taiwan, as an industrial power, then ends up selling products with a high added value that are incomparable with the agricultural inputs that the Central American counterpart can sell.

RFI: Giammattei’s visit to Taiwan is part of a context of accelerated erosion of diplomatic relations in the region. Let’s remember that Honduras broke relations last March.

Jorge Malena: Since 2016, when the current Taipei authorities took office, there has been a significant bleeding in international matters, since there have been five States in our region that broke ties with Taipei and established them with the People’s Republic of China.

We have the case of Panama in 2017, El Salvador and the Dominican Republic in 2018. Nicaragua in 2021, Honduras in 2023. We can truly affirm that Central America and the Caribbean are an important diplomatic battlefield between Beijing and Taipei, and therefore Therefore then the PRC, without hesitation, pays a lot of attention to the diplomatic processes in this part of the world.

RFI: A situation that Washington is following with great interest as well.

Jorge Malena: Washington views with great concern what is the growing international isolation of the self-proclaimed Republic of China in Taiwan in light of what is this other strategic bid that the People’s Republic of China has with the United States. To this end, it has come to light that the government in Washington has encouraged the countries of Central America, the Caribbean, and even those of Oceania (where four states recognize Taiwan) not to make any kind of diplomatic recognition change. However, it is a reality that the growing economic power of the People’s Republic of China is a real challenge for these states that still have ties to Taipei.

RFI: Still in Latin America, Paraguay could soon join this trend.

Jorge Malena: It is interesting to see the evolution of this process in terms of increasing recognition of the People’s Republic of China, let us keep in mind that in the next few days there will be presidential elections in Paraguay. Coincidentally at the moment, Paraguay is the only country in South America that still maintains diplomatic relations with the ROC in Taiwan and there are many, many analysts who see an eventual victory for the Alegre candidate. This would bring about a change in recognition.