Germany’s security strategy will comply with NATO but without harming its interests in China

It is true that at the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022, the German Chancellor, the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, already announced the beginning of a new eraa change of course -known as Zeitenwende– in foreign and defense policy. Thus, after decades of disarmament, the parliament approved the largest military spending in the last 80 years and modified the rules on arms exports in order to send aid to the Kiev army.

Now, in the document, 76 pagesthe commitment to allocate 2% of GDP in Defense in order to fulfill NATO’s objectives, hitherto unfulfilled. However, the promise has an expiration date, since it is detailed that it will only be done “over a period of several years”. In any case, this means that all departments, with the exception of Defense, will have to save expenses in the 2024 budget, according to the newspaper. Die Welt.

The strategy has been presented by Scholz, but also by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, annalena baerbock (Greens), the finance minister, christian lindner (FDP), the Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius (SPD), and the person in charge of the Interior portfolio, Nancy Faeser (S.P.D.).

All departments have participated in its development, so the plan not only covers the military field; it also includes aspects related to migration, the supply of raw materials, energy or food security and climate change. However, it does not detail which challenges are a priority to address or what specific means and resources will be used to address each of the challenges.

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As expected, in the at international level, the text places Russia as “the greatest threat to peace and security” of the Euro-Atlantic bloc. Now, the section that had generated the greatest expectation It was the one related to Chinaone of the main trading partners and the most uncomfortable of Germany.

China as a partner, competitor and rival

In general, the tone towards the Asian giant is critical, since it is accused -following the line of the Atlantic Alliance Security Concept- of “trying to reshape the existing rules-based international order in various ways”, “of claiming regional supremacy more and more aggressively” and “of repeatedly acting in contradiction with our interests and values”. The document also states that “China is deliberately using their economic power to achieve political objectives”.

Despite this, Berlin defines Beijing as systemic partner, competitor and rival. And it is that currently the imports and exports of China in Germany reach the 300,000 million euroswhich makes the Asian power the main trading partner of the German country, as well as an essential market for large German companies such as Volkswagen or BMW automobiles.

Perhaps because of this dependency the German Government has decided to omit from the National Security Strategy to Taiwanthe self-governing island that China claims as its own and has already announced that pretends to control, Even if you have to use force to do so. “It is interesting that Taiwan is not mentioned, probably the biggest security challenge in the coming years,” Noah Barkin, an analyst at Rhodium Group, told Reuters.

However, there are experts who suggest that this program is actually a starting point. “A general systemic approach”in the words of Scholz, which will continue to materialize and expand with other secondary strategies yet to be developed.

In this sense, the German Executive still has time to better define how it wants its relationship with Beijing to be in the coming years. And it is expected that a specific strategy for China will be presented on July 5. But before that, Scholz will meet in Berlin with the Chinese premier, Li Qiang, in a summit that, after the presentation of the defense plan will be, at least, uncomfortable.