GATE TO THE EAST Lebanon after Nasrallah, subjected to a war that it did not want

Hezbollah’s number two announced: “We continue the fight.” The price is already high: more than a thousand victims, incalculable devastation and a humanitarian emergency; but in the shelters and on the streets expressions of resentment against the dead secretary general are rare. France and the United States (which approves the Israeli ground intervention) continue to talk about a diplomatic solution that at the moment seems distant.

Beirut () – “Know thyself”. This Socratic precept, valid for any man who aspires to wisdom, also applies to States. And by ignoring it, Hezbollah, dragging Lebanon with it, finds itself today in full turbulence and with a “limited” ground invasion by the Israeli army, which began last night after several days of intense bombing. For having acted unilaterally and having decided, without consulting the other components of the nation, to drag the country into a war in support of Hamas in Gaza on October 8, 2023, Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah ended up provoking a massive response from the Jewish State , which took the form of a large-scale attack (air and ground) against which its military resources – first of all the systems to intercept long-range missiles – and the threats of Iranian support, did not work.

The Israeli response, which everyone was paying attention to in these frenetic days, cost Nasrallah himself the life, along with a dozen senior military commanders of the Islamic resistance. The operations also devastated the southern outskirts of Beirut, as well as all areas where Hezbollah is rooted and has popular support, from the capital to southern Lebanon, passing through the Bekaa Valley, at the cost of more than a thousand victims and incalculable devastation. And it ended up throwing a population that has been left without alternatives onto the roads.

Overcrowded in improvised reception centers (public and private schools, church halls or municipal buildings), another part of the population has ended up on the sidewalks, squares and public gardens of Beirut. In this human agglomeration, expressions of resentment against the secretary general of Hezbollah are very rare. Even in the midst of suffering, the population remains viscerally united to it, not without gratitude for the precarious but humane welcome they find in the regions that were saved from Israeli cruelty.

Nasrallah ‘eliminated’

The “elimination” – to use an Israeli army term – of a charismatic figure like Hassan Nasrallah has caused a wave of shock not only in Lebanon, but throughout the Arab and Muslim world. And the impact of this operation will undoubtedly be transmitted from generation to generation. His body was recovered from the rubble, apparently in good condition, but it is not yet known when the funeral will be held, or if it will be public. In Lebanon they announced three days of mourning when the Party of God confirmed his death. The appointment of Hassan Nasrallah’s successor has not yet been decided, but observers believe that Iran will most likely have something to say about it.

Torn between the desire to capitalize on the military and psychological victories of its air campaign and diplomatic efforts led by France and the United States to find a diplomatic solution, the Israeli military command decided last night on the first option. His commandos, with Washington’s consent, crossed Lebanon’s land borders through gaps in the concrete wall they had built outside the villages of Rmeich and Aïta Chaab, Adeissé and Kfar Kila. The objective of entering by land is to destroy any infrastructure that Hezbollah has built in the area, mainly tunnels and missile bases. The Lebanese army that was in some garrisons maneuvered accordingly. It is obviously too early to comment on the success of this operation and the response it could receive from a Hezbollah disorganized and weakened by the blows dealt to it. At the time of writing there had been no direct confrontation between Hezbollah and Israeli commandos.

The diplomatic route

A diplomatic solution to the war between Hezbollah and Israel currently has no chance of succeeding. US President Joe Biden and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reiterated yesterday that, regardless of the incursions, they remain committed to a peaceful process. While recognizing Israel’s “right to defend itself,” Austin himself warned his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Galant, that the objective of these incursions must be “to guarantee the return of the population to their homes, on both sides of the border.” . On the other hand, the military operation cannot be, according to Washington, the prelude to a lasting occupation.

Always in the field of diplomatic efforts, the new French Foreign Minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, arrived in Lebanon on the afternoon of September 29 to hold talks focused on a ceasefire, a truce in line with the Biden- Macron that took place on the sidelines of the annual session of the UN General Assembly.

From Beirut, the tenant of the Quai d’Orsay urged the Jewish State to “give diplomacy a chance”, but was very careful not to go to Israel because he knew perfectly well – according to well-informed sources – the climate of hostility he would have encountered. That said, Barrot did not forgive Hezbollah militants and stated: “I remind you that the current situation is largely due to this movement’s decision to enter the conflict on October 8, dragging Lebanon along, something we have always deplored. ”. Finally, he noted that “the parameters for a lasting diplomatic solution have been known for some time” and consist of “fully implementing Security Council Resolution 1701,” which requires the withdrawal of Hezbollah north of the Litani River.

Rejected by Israel, the diplomatic solution was also rejected by Hezbollah. “We follow in Nasrallah’s footsteps,” declared the party’s number two, Naïm Kassem, yesterday in a brief speech on television, his face marked by pain. The war “could be long,” he acknowledged, but the Party of God has the necessary strength “to confront a land invasion.”

This statement ended the hopes that moments before had been raised in public opinion by a statement by Prime Minister Nagib Mikati. After a meeting with Nabih Berry, the latter had announced that there was still a possibility of a ceasefire, followed immediately by the deployment of the army to the border and a parliamentary session to elect a new president.

In Bkerké, Barrot also met with Maronite Patriarch Béshara Raï, who reiterated his commitment to proclaiming Lebanon’s “positive neutrality” with respect to regional and international issues. The head of French diplomacy arrived in Lebanon accompanied by a military plane carrying two mobile medical posts with the capacity to care for a thousand seriously injured people, as well as some ten tons of medical equipment and an emergency aid package valued at 10 million euros. to support humanitarian organizations.

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