from the gas crisis to the grain blockade

A new front line is opening for Europe. The unilateral rupture by Moscow of the safe conduct that allowed Ukraine to safely export grain to third countries through a corridor in the Black Sea threatens to intensify the winter of recession that hangs over Europe if a new agreement is not reached.

The movement, which the UN is now trying to reverse against the clock, puts the supply chain of a basic good in check to produce a large part of the food for basic consumption in homes. Just 48 hours after Moscow made its decision, the price of wheat futures have soared in international markets due to fear of a possible shortage situation. Specifically, this has rebounded 7.7%until reaching 8.93 dollars per bushel, which is the unit of measurement of capacity for solid merchandise.

This strategy of ‘deprivation’ of a good by Russia is not new. Since the beginning of the war, the Kremlin has speculated on the supply of gas to Europe, especially in shipments to the countries most dependent on this source of energy. Bulgaria, Poland, Denmark either Germanyamong others, have long lacked an active gas pipeline that would allow them to fill their reserves for the winter.

[Ataques masivos contra infraestructuras energéticas provocan apagones por toda Ucrania]

The direct consequence of this situation, in addition to the rise in the price of gas -the Dutch TTF, the futures reference for Europe, reached its maximum price last August-, have been the consumption reduction policies that Europe has had to implement for this winter. Now, months after having to take action on energy consumption, the West faces a new problem: the threat of world famine.

The agreement signed on July 22 allowed Ukraine to export part of its harvest in record time, however, the barns are still fullUkrainian farmers say, and the crop is in danger of staying on the ground if it is not transported as soon as possible.

“Russia’s interruption in its participation in the grain pact is having immediate and detrimental impacts on world food security,” he said in relation to the issue. ned pricespokesman for the United States Department of State. “Prices have fallen thanks to the initiative, but this progress hangs in the balance. If Russia does not resume its involvement, it will not only impact Ukraine, but it will be a blow to the rest of the world“, he pointed out in statements collected by EFE.

The UN, Turkey and Ukraine are now trying to find an emergency solution to this situation while hundreds of ships are waiting blocked in the black sea. Zelensky assured on Monday that he would continue to export grain despite Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement and Moscow’s warning that “it is not safe” to do so without his collaboration.

In this sense, some insurers, faced with the incipient risk, are ceasing to cover shipments that occur in this corridor. “As of today we are pausing the listing of new shipments until we understand the situation,” Ascot’s cargo manager, Chris McGill. For the moment, those that had already been issued remain in force.

Thus, late yesterday afternoon, the UN assured that it will continue to implement the agreement for the export of Ukrainian grain despite the Russian decision. “We are not going to ask for permission, we continue to implement the agreement,” he asserted. Martin Griffiths, humanitarian chief of the United Nations. The ships currently awaiting the existence of a safe corridor transport, according to UN figures, a total of 2 million tons of grain.

Europe is not the only continent where the supply of grain can be stressed at the point. Africa is another of the enclaves where several countries dependent on shipments from Ukraine and Russia settle. Egypt, Sudan either Kenya, among others, receive important shipments of this material. However, as Russia has assured, this group of countries will not lack coverage. Moscow has assured that it will supply, if necessary, 500,000 tons to Africa for free.