() – Voters head to the polls across France to vote in the second round of an early election called by the president Emmanuel Macron who risks losing swaths of his centrist allies in parliament and being forced to spend the remaining three years of his presidential term in an uneasy association with the far right.
After taking the lead in the first round of voting last Sunday, the far-right National Rally party, led by Jordan Bardella, 28, under the watchful eye of the party’s doyenne, Marine Le Pen, is closer to the power than ever.
National Group, whose once taboo anti-immigrant policy has received a renewed and more acceptable face thanks to Bardella, won 33% of the popular vote in the first round. The newly formed leftist coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP), came in second with 28%, while Macron’s Ensemble alliance came in a distant third with 21%.
But the prospect of a far-right government – which would be France’s first since the collaborationist Vichy regime during World War II – has prompted Ensemble and the NFP to act. After a week of political negotiations, hundreds of candidates gave up certain seats in an attempt to deny the RN an absolute majority.
Voting began at 8 a.m. local time (2 a.m. ET), when France began the process of electing the 577 members of its National Assembly, in which 289 seats are needed for a party to have an absolute majority. In the outgoing parliament, Macron’s alliance had only 250 seats, so he needed the support of other parties to pass laws.
Only those who obtain more than 12.5% of the votes of registered voters in the first round will be able to run in the second round, which means that it is often a dispute between two candidates. But this time, a record number of seats (more than 300) led to a second round with three candidates, which gives an idea of the polarization that France is experiencing. In an attempt not to divide the anti-far-right vote, more than 200 candidates from Macron’s alliance and the NFP agreed not to run in the second round.
Although Agrupación Nacional’s strong result in the first round means it could triple the 88 seats it had in the outgoing parliament, it is unclear whether it will be able to achieve an absolute majority. Although it is customary for the president to name a prime minister from the largest party, Bardella has repeatedly said he will refuse to form a minority government.
In that case, Macron might have to look for a prime minister on the far left or, to form a technocratic government, elsewhere entirely.
Whatever the outcome of Sunday’s vote, France appears destined for a period of political chaos, with Macron unable to call another parliamentary election for at least a year.
The campaign has already been affected by violence. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said Friday that 51 candidates and activists had been attacked during the campaign, causing some of them to be hospitalized.
The vote will be held three years earlier than necessary. France was not scheduled to hold parliamentary elections until 2027, but Macron called the early vote (the first time a French leader has done so since 1997) after his party was defeated by the RN in last month’s European Parliament elections.
Although the results of the European elections should not have any influence on domestic politics, Macron said he could not ignore the message voters sent him and wanted to clarify the situation.
Some have argued that, faced with the possibility of the RN winning both the presidency and parliament in 2027, Macron was willing to expose it to the government beforehand, hoping it would lose its appeal once in power. If the RN refuses to form a minority government, Macron’s gamble could backfire.
A government led by the RN would have enormous consequences for France and the rest of Europe. His spending plans – which include reducing the value-added tax on electricity, fuel and other energy products – have alarmed financial markets and could put France on a collision course with Brussels’ restrictive spending laws.
On the continental stage, an RN-led government would boost Europe’s shift to the right, at a time when the center is trying to remain united on issues such as support for Ukraine, migration and climate change.
Between the RN and the absolute majority is the NFP, made up of more radical figures such as Jean-Luc Melenchon, three-time presidential candidate and leader of the France Unmovable party, as well as moderate leaders such as Raphael Gluckmann, of Place Publique.
Although Macron’s allies in the Ensemble have said they will do everything possible to prevent the RN from coming to power, he has refused to collaborate with or support France Unbowed’s candidates. Gabriel Attal, Macron’s protégé and outgoing prime minister, has vowed never to ally himself with Mélenchon.
Polls will close at 8 pm local time (2 pm ET) this Sunday, and full results are expected early this Monday.
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