Four policies can almost eradicate plastic pollution

Nov. 15 () –

A new machine learning study published in ‘Science’ It proposes how to reduce plastic waste by more than 90% and plastic-related emissions by a third.

If policymakers implemented only four policies that act throughout the entire life cycle of plastic (from production to use and disposal, we could reduce plastic pollution by 91% on a global scale by 2050, according to the simulations of the authors of the study, all belonging to the University of California Santa Barbara.

The four high-impact policies that emerged in this study include: requiring that new products be made with 40% post-consumer recycled plastic; limit new plastic production to 2020 levels; invest significantly in the expansion of infrastructure waste management, especially in lower income parts of the world; and implement a small fee on plastic packaging.

With UN treaty negotiations underway, these findings provide a crucial plan to address the plastic crisis. Plastic production has increased relentlessly for decades, leading to increasing generation of plastic waste and poor environmental management.

As plastic degrades, it fragments into micro- and nanoplastics, which harm ecosystems globally, from the Arctic to deep ocean habitats, and pose significant health risks, including increased risks of cancer, cardiovascular disease and reproductive problems.

The life cycle of plastic also intensifies climate change through emissions from the extraction, production and processing of oil and gas waste.

The disproportionate burden of plastic waste in the Global South and the frequency of locating plastic facilities near marginalized communities have raised pressing concerns about environmental justice.

Recently, there has been a global push to address these issues, culminating in a 2022 United Nations resolution to negotiate a legally binding treaty to curb plastic pollution.

To assist in this effort, Samuel Pottinger and colleagues at the University of California Santa Barbara developed a new machine learning model to forecast trends in global plastic production, trade, and waste management through 2050.

They also simulated the effects of eight plausible policy interventions to mitigate waste and emissions. The researchers found that, without interventions, Annual mismanaged plastic waste is expected to almost double by 2050reaching 121 million metric tons, the university reports in a statement.

At the same time, annual greenhouse gas emissions from the global plastic system are projected to increase by 37% over the same period.

However, the authors also show that a combined policy intervention approach that includes a production cap, a recycling mandate, a packaging tax, and infrastructure investment could reduce poorly managed plastic waste by up to 91% and reduce plastic-related emissions in 2050 by approximately one third.

“Together, these observations provide timely insight into how to maximize the impact of the UN treaty on plastic pollution both in its drafting and over the longer time horizon of its implementation,” they write in the Science study. “These results make it clear that, with sufficient political will, there is sufficient technical potential to dramatically reduce mismanaged plastic waste and significantly address some of the most insidious associated problems.”