Foreign policy concerns could affect US presidential elections

“It’s the economy, stupid,” is the oft-repeated slogan of the 1992 US presidential election, attributed to political consultant James Carville in explaining voters’ motivations.

Economic concerns remain central to voters in the planned November rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, but the wars in Gaza and Ukraine may sway enough voters in swing states that foreign policy matters. election day.

“This election is expected to be very close and decided by an extremely small margin,” said Robert Collins, a professor of urban studies and public policy at Dillard University in New Orleans, Louisiana. “In close elections, the people on those margins can determine who becomes president.”

Lauri Sklar, a music teacher from Massachusetts, told the Voice of America that this election feels different from others, in part because the war in Gaza is “a defining moment” for young Democrats.

“Whether they choose to support a third-party candidate or refuse to vote altogether, I think there are a lot of young liberal voters who won’t vote for Biden in November, and I’m worried that could mean Trump wins,” Sklar explains. .

Young Americans focus on Gaza

A poll earlier this year by Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government found that Americans ages 18 to 29 overwhelmingly support a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

Brooklyn Birdie, a graduate student from Shreveport, Louisiana, says she supported Biden in 2020, but won’t do so in 2024.

“There’s no way ‘Genocide Joe’ is getting my vote this fall,” Birdie told the VOA. “He is complicit in ongoing ethnic cleansing.”

That doesn’t mean she’ll vote for Trump.

“I think, as a businessman, the Trump presidency was good for the economy,” he explained, “but I can’t support someone with such unwavering support and loyalty to Israel. “I’m considering voting for a third party, but I’m not sure yet.”

American priorities

The role of the United States abroad is important to New York professor Paige Benson, but it is not something that will decide her vote.

“I value foreign policy and I think our relationship with other countries is really important,” he told the VOA. “But that being said, we have a lot of work to do with our own country.”

“When it comes to who I vote for, it will be who I trust with the economy,” he added. “It seems like everyone is struggling right now. I know people who make six-figure salaries who are struggling. Imagine how the rest of us are doing.”

Florida retiree Harvey Wasserman says he will vote on immigration.

“Foreign policy is important, but I wish we would stop being the judge and part of the world,” he said. “For me, let’s focus on home. I want to see secure borders and clear citizenship requirements. “I think Trump is more likely to give us that.”

Determined on the margins

Connecticut voter Rebecca Urrutia says that because “how we handle tensions with other countries will have a big impact on me,” she will vote for Trump.

“I don’t like Trump’s communication style at all, but he is much stronger on foreign policy,” he added. “He is direct and delivers what he promises. The Biden administration, on the other hand, is very hesitant about his positions. There is too much at stake to be undecided.” Foreign policy is also a priority for Louisiana voter Debbie Pesses, but she will vote for Biden.

“If Putin takes over Ukraine, no part of Europe will be safe,” he said. “And as much as he feels about the people of Gaza, we cannot allow Hamas to threaten the only true democracy in the Middle East.”

“We need someone calm in the White House,” Pesses continued, “and while I am concerned about Biden’s age, his temperament is much better for the job than Trump.”

Impact of the 2024 elections

In an election that could be decided by a handful of swing states, Collins, the Dillard University professor, says a motivating foreign policy concern, like the war in Gaza, could make the difference. In Georgia, for example, Biden won the state four years ago by fewer than 12,000 votes.

“There are more than 11,000 Muslim-Americans in Atlanta alone,” Collins said. “That could determine the next president, and it doesn’t even take into account non-Muslim college students who are extremely dissatisfied with the way Biden has handled the conflict in Israel.”

“In the end, I think Muslim Americans will conclude that Biden is the lesser of two evils compared to Trump’s Middle East policy,” he continued, “but I think a sizable number of younger Democratic voters might be so disenchanted that they will choose No vote. The question is: will enough of them sit out to influence the election?

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