Good morning to all and welcome to Santiago de Chile and to ECLAC.
In these brief minutes of welcome and introduction to this seminar, I would like to explain how we at ECLAC see the reasons and objectives why we have convened you today.
And for this I would like to start with a short story.
In 2011, on the occasion of a Summit meeting of presidents and heads of state of Asian countries, the Asian Development Bank prepared a document entitled Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century. The objective of the document was to analyze the development trends of Asian countries and propose scenarios and strategic lines for the next 40 years.
The Document developed three scenarios for Asia, one high, one intermediate and one of stagnation if not regression. The negative or pessimistic scenario, in case Asian countries did not do their development tasks well, was to follow the path of Latin America and fall into the middle-income trap.
Latin America is presented as, and I quote: “a region that is not very dynamic, with low levels of investment, modest increases in productivity, timidity in carrying out long-term projects, excessive inequality and lack of pragmatism in debates between the role of the State and the market, where ideology predominates.”
The sad thing about this description from 13 years ago is the realization that it was not very far from reality. And the most worrying thing is that the changes since then have not necessarily been for the better, a good number of them have been for the worse. We continue with a low capacity to grow, with very little growth in productivity, with too much inability to carry out long-term projects, with excessive inequality and a lack of pragmatism.
For example, in the last decade from 2014 to 2023 the average growth of AL was only 0.8%. This is less than the 2% at which the region grew in the famous lost decade of the 1980s.
And it is not only an issue of the last decade: in the 30 years from 1950 to 1979 the region grew at 5.5% per year, in the following 30 years, from 1980 to 2009, it grew at 2.7%, less than half ; and in the last 15 years at only 1.9%. That is to say, the region has been losing its capacity to grow. This is the first of three development traps in which, from ECLAC, we see the region mired.
The second is the well-known trap of high inequality and low social mobility. And the third is fundamental for this Conference: it is a trap of low institutional capacities and ineffective governance.
The lack of capabilities for forecasting, strategic reflection, planning and execution of long-term programs is one of the main obstacles to overcoming the long-term structural trends that characterize Latin America and moving towards a better, more productive, inclusive and sustainable future.
That is why at ECLAC we are convinced that it is not enough to identify the areas of gap and make a list of aspirations about what to do? It is key that we talk about the hows, that is, how to promote the major transformations that the models require. development of the region?
And the topic of how leads us to discuss and analyze at least three major related elements: governance and effectiveness of public policies; the institutional capacities of the State, here we are talking about the TOPP capacities of the institutions, technical, operational, political and prospective, that is, the capacities to think about the future; and spaces for social dialogue to define responses to all challenges. These three elements greatly influence the ability to manage the necessary transformations.
And it is in this spirit of strengthening institutional and governance capacities, including the ability to think about the future, that at ECLAC we are working intensely on these issues and this is the fundamental reason for organizing this First Regional Conference of the Parliamentary Future Commissions.
What we would like is to launch a high-level initiative that would increase legislative foresight and anticipatory governance capacities through the establishment of a network of Future Commissions of the parliaments of Latin America and the Caribbean.
For this we have the privilege of having the support of two great allies, Senator Juan Antonio Coloma, President of the Commission on Future Challenges, Science, Technology and Innovation of the Senate and former President of the Senate of Chile, and Representative Rodrigo Goñi , President of the Future Commission of the Chamber of Deputies of the Uruguayan Congress.
This high-level event seeks to identify challenges and opportunities for the strengthening and consolidation of parliamentary future commissions in Latin America.
Throughout these two days we will analyze strategic topics related to reflections on the future, such as:
- ECLAC’s vision of the challenges of regional development and our proposal to move towards a more productive, inclusive and sustainable development model in Latin America and the Caribbean;
- the global and regional panorama of the main geopolitical and geostrategic trends;
- the state of the art in terms of parliamentary future commissions in the world and in Latin America;
- new public policy responses to emerging challenges such as climate change and Artificial Intelligence; and
- building capacities for anticipatory governance and legislative foresight, including tools, mechanisms and approaches to strengthen legislative innovation and adaptation.
At ECLAC we see this Conference as a unique opportunity to help establish an initiative aimed at strengthening the capacity of the region’s parliaments to think about the future and incorporate this thinking into current work.
We firmly believe that the prospective and strategic capabilities of the countries are indispensable and must be organized so that it is a permanent exercise in which the various political forces with parliamentary representation participate.
The purpose of legislative foresight is to anticipate the strategic options that the State has, based on long-term thinking that adopts State policies and effectively coordinates the public agenda, not only of Congress but of the country as a whole, through a greater capacity for permanent social dialogue. This involves building bridges, coordinating actors, generating consensus and alliances and with all this managing the transformations that great challenges require.
For this reason, I thank each of the Parliamentarians here present, who accepted our call and participate in this meeting today. We have a very specific aspiration as a result of this meeting: the establishment of a network of future commissions of the parliaments of the Latin American and Caribbean region.
The objectives of the Network would be:
- Hold regional meetings of parliamentary future commissions to facilitate horizontal cooperation and the exchange of good practices between them.
- Strengthen the existing future commissions in those countries in the region that already have them, providing resources and training to improve their operation, effectiveness, impact and relevance.
- Promote the creation of new commissions for the future in those countries that do not yet have these but are interested in establishing them, providing technical assistance, institutional support and good practices for their establishment and development.
- Explore the possibility of supporting the establishment of future commissions within the executive branch to seek synergies between both powers in the context of presidential systems.
We have the participation of a notable group of 30 experts, officials from international organizations and prominent parliamentarians from our region, from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Paraguay, Dominican Republic and Uruguay.
In this seminar we will see exemplary cases of strengthening anticipation capacities, elaboration of scenarios and national, sectoral and institutional strategies. Among them, the experiences of Finland, Singapore, Chile, Uruguay, Costa Rica, the European Union, OECD, UNDP and the United Nations Futures Lab.
The necessary transformations in the development model and the challenges to face the challenges of globalization, climate change and artificial intelligence will be analyzed.
And finally, through collaborative work, on the last afternoon of the event (Friday) it is expected to build with the participants an agenda of recommendations and specific commitments for the creation of a Latin American and Caribbean network that strengthens the Future Commissions.
The moment is propitious, because as you know, the Future Summit of the United Nations is approaching, which will take place next September.
My thanks to each of you and especially to Sergio Bitar, Daniel Zovatto, Senator Coloma, and Deputy Goñi. The leadership and commitment of all of them has been and is essential to open paths, fill these enormous spaces of opportunity, and demonstrate that the social construction of the future in our region is viable and feasible.
Thank you so much!
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