Farage, the promoter of leaving the EU, could reach Parliament this time

Cut the wings Reform UK, The former Brexit Party led by Farage, was one of the main objectives of the advancement of the British general elections to July 4. He Conservative Party sought to catch Farage off guard and prevent him from having enough time to organize his campaign. The strategy did not work. The populist politician has done increase the number of members of his party from 14,000 to 45,000 and it is calculated that could get up to seven seats and divide the Conservative vote into up to 30 constituencies, facilitating a Labor victory.

Last week, a survey of YouGov first put on Reform UK as the second political force in the pollswith 19% of voting intention, ahead of the 18% of tories, although far from 37% of the Labor Party. “We are the only rivals of the Labor Party,” Farage proclaimed on his social networks. His confidence contrasts with the prime minister’s statements Rishi Sunak in an interview on the sidelines of the G7 summit: “I fight for every vote.”

Behind ‘Mr Brexit’

Without ever having been part of the government, Farage has defined much of British politics in the last decade, driving the victory of the Brexit and the anti-immigration stance of the conservative sectors of the country. The former stockbroker changed the country’s political landscape in 2014, taking advantage of the European Parliament elections to protest against the EU itself. The low turnout (only 36%) worked in his favor, allowing his party at the time, UKIP, to achieve victory with nearly 30% of the votes. Farage’s victory scared then Prime Minister David Cameronwho called the referendum on Brexit with the aim of preventing the exodus of voters towards the far-right party, thereby marking the beginning of the end of his government.

With an indisputable ability to find the right moment, Farage knew how to monopolize all the spotlights during the Brexit campaign, and then let Theresa May and Boris Johnson lead negotiations with Brussels. Just one day after the referendum, Farage distanced himself from his own statements promising that leaving the EU would allow more than £350 million in “free money” to be allocated to the British National Health Service. In the years that followed, he admitted that his children maintained European citizenship through their German nationality and refused to reject their right to an MEP pension. When the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) calculated that Brexit would cost an economic impact of 4% of the country’s GDP, Farage branded Tory politicians “useless”, blaming them for “failure”.

He Brexit is considered today a “mistake” by the majority of Brits. A study commissioned by London City Council estimated that leaving the EU would have cost the British economy around £140 billion and two million jobs between 2016 and 2023; 300 thousand of them in the capital. But as Cameron, May and Johnson fell under the weight of the economic fallout from Brexit and COVID, Farage has remained in the background. When the Conservative Party was suffering its worst moment, Mr Brexit resurfaced with a concise post on X (formerly Twitter): “I’m back.”

A different candidate

Despised by the British establishment, Farage has been the victim of banana milkshakes, wet cement and coffee. The populist leader has profited from the attacks during what he has described as “the most lethargic, most boring electoral campaign we have ever seen,” characterized by the seriousness of the profiles of Sunak and Keir Starmer, the Labor candidate. Thus, the presence of a politician who last year put his head in a box of snakes during the television program I’m famous, get me out of here! has captured the public’s attention. Farage has used this media focus to appeal to Conservative voters unhappy with the state of essential public services such as health and education, as well as the rising cost of living, inflation and lack of opportunity.

From the “enemy” in Brussels, Farage has transformed into an immigrant, describing the arrival of immigrants to the United Kingdom (legal and illegal) as an “invasion.” His program promises to prevent “ships” from arriving from France and to punish companies that hire foreign workers. In addition, he is seeking to redirect £15bn of aid towards tax cuts such as exempting those with assets under £2m from inheritance tax. With these promises, Reform UK has put the Conservative Party in check, which is facing a historic defeat. The situation has led Sunak to warn that “any vote that does not go to the Conservative Party will end up favoring the Labor opposition.” However, Farage already considers Starmer the future prime minister. His goal is more distant: “Our real ambition is the 2029 general elections.”