() – — In his speech celebrating his electoral victoryUS President-elect Donald Trump hailed a new “golden era of America” and claimed to have achieved the “greatest political movement of all time.”
The president-elect and his team celebrated the Republican’s political return as a triumph against the wokismliberal immigration and other policies of the Biden era.
The European far right is taking note.
Many European populists hope that the return of Trump – a transatlantic ally who promotes the same conservative Christian values and shares the same disdain for progressive politics – will help serve their interests at home and further normalize their anti-immigrant, life-first rhetoric. nation.
“Congratulations, President Trump… Never stop, always keep fighting and win the election,” Geert Wilders, the populist leader of the Dutch Freedom Party (PVV), wrote in X on November 6.
Alternative for Germany (AfD) co-leader Alice Weidel also expressed her congratulations and declared that it was not “conscious Hollywood” but rather “the American working people” who decided the election.
For the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, of the Fidesz party, it was a “much-needed victory for the world.”
However, Armida van Rij, senior researcher at Chatham House, highlights the importance of not considering Europe’s far-right parties as a homogeneous group. However, there are common overlapping themes among European populists that are also present in Trump’s playbook.
Van Rij points out the “anti-conscious agenda, traditional values, the anti-green transition and the anti-immigration agenda.”
He European Green Deal faced backlash from far-right groups who want to weaken climate legislation or ignore climate action entirely. Similarly, Trump promised to demolish virtually all of President Joe Biden’s efforts to reduce carbon emissions and accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels.
Another common theme between Trump’s agenda and his European allies, Van Rij told , is the “strong notions of what an American is and looks like, and what a European or a Hungarian or a Hungarian is or looks like.” Italian or a Frenchman.”
This feeling is evident if you look at the language used by the extreme right. In Austria, provocative anti-immigration slogans such as “love of the country instead of Moroccan thieves” are the norm for the Freedom Party (FPÖ) . In Germany, anti-Islamic sentiment has been palpable on AfD posters with the slogan “Burkas? “We prefer bikinis.”
That rhetoric may be shocking to many who read it, but according to an analysis by the Center for European Reform, a London-based think tank focused on European integration, Trump will strengthen the European far-right by “normalizing and amplifying.” your ideas. Trump himself has employed controversial rhetoric in expressing his hardline views on immigration, calling the United States a “garbage dump for the world.”
One far-right leader who, at first glance, looks like he will benefit from a Trump presidency is Hungary’s longtime leader, Viktor Orbán. He has been one of the most prominent European populists to express his support for Trump and even said he toasted his election victory with vodka, according to Agence France-Presse.
Orbán, the closest ally of the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, in Europehas been ostracized by the bloc due to the introduction of anti-LQBTQ laws, his increasingly authoritarian government in his home country, and his soft attitude towards Russia. While drawing the ire of his European peers, Orbán’s relationship with Trump appears positive, with Orbán supporting his presidency and Trump touting the prime minister’s support.
Van Rij believes that with Trump in power in the United States, Orbán could “feel more emboldened to set aside any concerns about the rule of law, whether domestically or in the EU context,” arguing that “if Trump can do that, why should anyone follow the rule of law?” Earlier this week, a US court dismissed Trump’s last remaining federal criminal case, involving illegally withheld classified documents as well as charges related to election subversion.
With Trump in the White House, Orbán and other European populist leaders who take a softer stance toward Russia could feel emboldened in their calls to end the war in Ukraine. In Romania, far-right populist Calin Georgescu – who has risen to prominence and is preparing to face a center-right opposition leader in a second round of presidential elections – described Putin, in 2022, as a “man who loved his country.”
Trump openly expressed his goal to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible, even claiming in July that he could resolve the conflict in one day. He has also been accused of trying to gain the trust of dictators, including Putin.
“As we know, any kind of peace agreement on Putin’s terms would be terrible for Ukraine and terrible for European security,” Van Rij emphasizes.
“Trump’s re-election only underscores all that.”
Overall, Van Rij sees “a lot of convergence of thought” between Trump and some of Europe’s populist parties.
But despite the fanfare with which Trump’s re-election was greeted, superficial similarities could soon reveal key underlying conflicts of interest.
“There is a small contradiction between [los populistas] feeling like they have their man in the White House and the real implications of their policies for their countries,” Van Rij believes.
He points to economic policy as a prominent example.
The president-elect’s promise of a U.S.-first trade policy has the European Union bloc on a tightrope, and the fallout could hit populist leaders hoping to gain power in Europe.
Marine Le Pen, leader of the populist National Rally (RN) party, offered a more moderate response to Trump’s election victory, perhaps an indication that a populist leader is showing early signs of concern.
Eurostat data shows that France was the fourth largest exporter of EU goods to the United States in 2023. Van Rij says that France would therefore be disproportionately affected by Trump’s trade policy, “U.S. first”. In addition, Le Pen, whose party has a large number of seats in Parliament, could be worried that any trade tariffs on Europe could affect her campaign for the French presidency.
Liana Fix, a Europe researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, also sees why Le Pen might be worried about her chances of coming to power.
“Le Pen hopes to be elected if she emerges from her current embezzlement scandal before 2027. That means she would have to deal with Trump, who is not necessarily good at dealing with female leaders, in addition to the aspects [económicos]Fix told .
Earlier this month, French prosecutors sought a prison sentence and a five-year ban on politics for Le Pen, which could derail her bid to become president in 2027.
There are also reasons to believe that Orbán’s celebrations are premature. The Hungarian leader’s strong business ties with Chinese President Xi Jinping could prove a major point of friction. Hungary has managed to attract Chinese foreign investment to the country and the close relationship is already causing concern among some Republicans.
“Some members of the Republican Party consider China as archenemy number one, and Trump shares that view,” says Van Rij. “It’s an interesting contradiction and something that Orbán will have to face and deal with at some point. I think the United States will try to force Orbán to go in one direction or another. Orbán will not like that because he likes to be able to make different bets.”
Similarly, Fix believes Orbán could have difficulties if he tries to “court” Trump and Xi at the same time.
Fix says that while a Trump victory “definitely emboldens European populists and inoculates them against criticism from Brussels,” we must not forget that “European populists are divided among themselves: Le Pen does not get along well with [la primera ministra italiana, Giorgia] Meloni, for example, and no one gets along with the AfD.”
“The diversity of European populists will be the biggest challenge in benefiting from the warm air of historical righteousness coming from Washington,” Fix believes.
“Of course, all populist parties share the issue of migration and anti-left rhetoric. But in economic policy? There are great differences between Trump and Le Pen. In foreign policy? Meloni has supported Ukraine; Trump, no.
“The closer you get, the more nuanced the details become.”
‘s Ronald Brownstein contributed to this report.
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