Europe owes its good climate to the Gulf Stream. There are more and more experts who believe that his years are numbered

This is the story of a collapse foretold. About a year ago, a group of scientists modeled the future of thermohaline circulations in the Atlantic and concluded that the AMOC, the main ocean current that regulates the European climate, “was showing signs of collapse.” In February, Science magazine returned to the charge and provided compelling evidence that we were approaching the tipping point.

Now, It was Stefan Rahmstorf, one of the oceanographers who have most studied the physics of the Atlantic in a context of climate change. That is to say, more and more researchers are warning that something is happening with the phenomenon that separates Europe from its next “ice age.”

What is “Atlantic southern return circulation”? Under the relatively calm appearance of the surfaces of the seas and oceans, there is an enormous network of circulations and general dynamics that try to balance the enormous mass of water that covers the globe. After all, neither the sun heats all places on the planet equally, nor do freshwater flows enter the oceans in a homogeneous way.

The main route by which the oceans organize their temperatures and salinities On a global scale it is called “thermohaline circulation”. Within this circulation, we are interested in a very specific branch. The north-south oceanic flow that, like explained Jose María Sánchez-Laulhétransfers heat from the tropics to the east coast of North America and the west coast of Europe”: the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the AMOC.

Why are we arguing about her? With the mere definition of the AMOC it is clear that it is something important. Following with Sánchez Laulhé, “without it, Western Europe and eastern North America would cool significantly, with a host of potential adverse effects.” We are talking about things like a “generalized cooling throughout the North Atlantic and northern hemisphere in general”, a sharp drop in temperatures in Europe, a “strengthening of winter storms, with more and more powerful explosive cyclogenesis” or a “greater proportion of precipitation falling as snow throughout Europe”.

That is to say, its collapse is a central issue that would put a good part of the European continent in dozens of completely unprecedented situations (and would put its most basic infrastructures in check).

Does that mean we expect a glaciation in Europe in 2030? Obviously not. In Rahmstorf’s presentation explained that, between 35 and 45% of the models more advanced climatic conditions than we have, they conclude that “the AMOC could collapse in the 2030s.” But in reality, his work does not have as much to do with the consequences of the collapse as it might seem.

His presentation focuses on confirming that, indeed, it seems that the AMOC is weakening, that we still do not know when it could occur and that this collapse could be irreversible. Furthermore, and this is important, Rahmstorf places great emphasis that, in the face of so much uncertainty, “the precautionary principle should be applied.”

And it makes sense to start thinking about all this. Partly due to poor communication about the collapse and its possible consequences, the idea is being established that its effects could be the solution to all our problems with extreme temperatures and droughts. It is not.

As soon as we think about it, we will realize that we have entire societies of millions of people sustaining themselves on a fine climatic balance that we cannot control. Any sudden change (in whatever direction) could be a disaster. We do not know what will happen, or when, or how much it will cost us to adapt: ​​what is clear is that at that point, experts like Rahmstorf agree that it would be cheaper to stay as we are.

Although that would require decisive actions.

Image | Stefan Rahmstorf

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