“Once Donald Trump takes office, the world will experience a big change“warns the Prime Minister of Hungary, the radical right leader Viktor Orbánabout to end his rotating presidency of the European Union, during which he has simultaneously served as the Trojan horse of Vladimir Putin and of emissary of the republican candidate.
The rest of European leaders take this warning very seriously and accelerate preparations for Trump’s second presidency. Future relations with the United States will be main issue on the winter summit agenda of Heads of State and Government of the Twenty-Seven that will be held this December 19 in Brussels. It will be the first with the Portuguese socialist Antonio Costa as president of the European Council.
Above the economic threat, what worries Europeans most is what is going to happen Trump in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukrainean issue that they consider “existential” for the future of the continent.
The diagnosis shared in Brussels is that the current situation on the battlefield is “very difficult” for Volodymyr Zelensky’s government, that the Kremlin is winning and that the return of the real estate magnate will precipitate negotiations for a ceasefire between kyiv and Moscow after more than 1,000 days of war. “Our motto is: nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine and nothing about European security without Europeans,” explains a senior European diplomat.
The heads of State and Government will discuss this Thursday what to do if trump consume your threats and cuts military aid to Ukraine when he takes office on January 20. Could the Europeans sustain kyiv alone from a military and financial point of view? The former head of community diplomacy, Josep Borrellalready admitted that “Europe cannot replace the United States”, so Brussels depends entirely on the designs of the new (and old acquaintance) tenant of the White House.
European leaders have taken at face value the peace plan of Trump’s Russia-Ukraine war envoy, retired general Keith Kellogg. “I really think this will be resolved in the coming months”Kellogg said in a recent interview on Fox Business. Their plan is to force a ceasefire that freezes the war on the front line, so that Moscow would retain the occupied territories.
Furthermore, the United States wants definitively rule out Ukraine’s entry into NATO, thus giving in to Putin’s demands, and he also does not want to send more troops to the region. This means that the security guarantees that Zelensky demands so that the Kremlin does not attempt an invasion again would fall to a European peacekeeping force. Trump himself has already told Zelensky and Emmanuel Macron that he wants European troops supervising the ceasefire in Ukraine, as reported by the WSJ.
Sending European soldiers to Ukraine It was an absolute taboo that was broken precisely by the French president last February as a way of putting pressure on Moscow and maintaining a “strategic ambiguity.” But Emmanuel Macron was then disavowed by the rest of the European leaders, starting with the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz. The difference now is that even Berlin sees it necessary to discuss sending community troops to Ukraine due to pressure from Trump.
“There are signs from Trump that he wants the Europeans to be involved. Although we do not know when the ceasefire will take place, the debate is inevitable and must begin. We must discuss it with the Trump administration and we must be prepared,” European sources explain. .
Sending European peacekeepers to Ukraine was discussed by Macron and the Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tuskin the meeting that both held in Warsaw on December 12. At that time, Tusk wanted to reduce the urgency of the matter and cool down this possibility, although in reality the Poles are at the forefront of this debate.
“I want to take advantage of this opportunity and end speculation about possible troop presence of this or that country in Ukraine after reaching a truce, ceasefire or peace. The president (Macron) is aware that decisions on Poland’s actions will be taken in Warsaw and only in Warsaw. For now, we are not planning such actions,” Tusk said.
At next Thursday’s summit in Brussels, European leaders will also discuss other dimensions of the relationship between the EU and the United States. The heads of state and government of the 27 are willing to increase their defense efforts, as demanded by the new-old president, although they are not clear what exact promise they should make to appease Trump’s fury.
In trade matters, and in the face of Washington’s threat of tariff surcharges of up to 20% on all community products, the European Council will reiterate its offer to the new president of a “positive trade agenda”whose central axis would be to buy more liquefied natural gas from the United States. But if Trump opts for confrontation, Brussels already has an arsenal of retaliation prepared against iconic North American merchandise, where it can hurt the Republican Party the most.
Finally, European leaders will discuss the extent to which China can be a “bargaining chip” in negotiations with Trump. That is, if they are willing to fully align with US policy towards Beijing in exchange for freedom from tariff punishment.
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