Erdogan could lose the presidency to the opposition coalition after 20 years in power

“We are not talking about elections that open the door to an alternation in the government, we are talking about elections that are very important because they can give rise to a change of regime”, underlines Carmen Rodríguez López, a professor at the Autonomous University of Madrid who is an expert in contemporary Turkish politics. In an interview for EL ESPAÑOL, she explains that the opposition coalition has in its program “return to a parliamentary system, balance power system and expand fundamental rights and freedoms”.

Erdogan, leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), was the Turkish prime minister after winning the elections in 2002, a position that he renewed after the 2007 and 2011 elections, until in 2014 he was elected president, a rather ceremonial figure with hardly any executive power. However, in 2017 he submitted to a referendum some constitutional reforms that granted executive power to the president, annulling the figure of the prime minister and turning the Turkish parliamentary system into a presidential system.

[Kemal Kilicdaroglu, el elegido por la ‘Mesa de los Seis’ para destronar a Erdogan 20 años después]

According to Dr. Rodríguez, Turkey currently has what political scientists call “a competitive authoritarian regime“, where the Turkish president “has seized all the powers of the executive and with important legislative and judiciary powers.”

In this sense, “the opposition confronts the party in power in an unequal field of electoral competition“.

A united and strong opposition

The main opposition candidate is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), founded by the nation’s historic leader, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. This backed by a coalition of six political forces that go from the center left to the nationalist right, managing to overcome “the secularism-religiosity fracture”, as indicated by Dr. Rodríguez. The second opposition alliance is led by the pro-Kurdish party, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), a left-wing party in favor of minorities that in the last elections became the third political force in the country.

“The Kurdish issue is still taboo for sectors of Turkish politics, that is why it has been very difficult to reach an alliance where the pro-Kurdish party was also present”, clarifies Dr. Rodríguez. However, this party has announced that it will support the presidential candidate Kilicdaroglu, “a very important step”, as well as the fact that “almost all opposition parties at one time or another have shown their solidarity with Selahattin Dermitas”, the imprisoned leader of the HDP. His party, “over which the threat of outlawing hangs”, also presents itself under the acronym Green Left Party.

[Una masa enfurecida golpea al principal líder de la oposición turca durante un entierro]

In spite of the “growing partisan fragmentation” to which Turkey has attended in recent years, “the opposition is creating strategies, alliances and dynamics to have a united front.” Dr. Rodríguez also points out the “positive campaign” that the opposition coalition is developing, avoiding controversial issues that could lead to polarization and proposing different measures without attacking those of the current government, its main promise being a return to the parliamentary system.

For his part, Erdogan introduces himself “putting more focus on foreign policy“, where his merits in the international arena are a good electoral asset: his mediating role in Libya and Ukraine, his closeness with the Russian Vladimir Putin and the Syrian Bashar Al-Assad and his relations with key countries in the region: Israel, Arabia Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. has made many promises in the economic field, although there its wear and tear due to the crisis and some corruption scandals is more evident.

Possible post-electoral scenarios

On May 14, Turkey will hold presidential and parliamentary elections which, according to the current system, They take place every five years and are held at the same time. The presidential elections consist of a first round in which uNo of the candidates must get a simple majority (more than 50% of the votes). If this does not happen, the two candidates with the most votes go to a second round in which the winner is proclaimed president.

There is four candidates for the Turkish presidency. The first is the current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leader of the AKP and backed by the Alianza Popular coalition. The second is the top CHP leader and from the National Alliance coalition, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Thirdly, Muharren Ince, who was the CHP presidential candidate against Erdogan in the 2018 election. After the failed attempt to renew his candidacy with the CHP, he presented himself with a new party, the Partido de la Patria. Finally, Sinan Ogan is the candidate of the Ancient Alliancewhich brings together several nationalist right-wing parties.

“Gives the impression that the opposition has a serious chance to win the presidency of Türkiye“says Dr. Rodríguez. The different surveys suggest a very tight result between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu that would probably have to be resolved in a second round. On the other hand, in the parliamentary elections, in which 24 parties and five present themselves electoral alliances, “the polls seem to give the AKP –Erdogan’s party– the highest percentage of votes“.

This raises several possible scenarios. One of them is if Kilicdaroglu wins the presidency and the AKP wins parliament, in which case we would have a “cohabitation regime” that “it would greatly limit the reformist objective of the opposition.” Another possibility is that the alliance led by Erdogan obtained a majority in the Assembly, but that the presidential elections went to a second round: “This could lead part of the electorate to vote for Erdogan to have the president of the same majority party in the Chamber”.

There will be no electoral overturn due to the earthquake

Contrary to what one might think, Dr. Rodríguez affirms that the earthquake has not been a campaign issue: “What they are seeing in the polls is that it will not lead to an electoral turnaround and that previous party affiliation is what will determine how the causes of the earthquake and its consequences have been perceived. That there will be changes, without a doubt, but not as much as expected”.

Yes, it has been an important issue as a structural issue “for the challenge of registering, registering, voting for all these people” affected by the earthquake. It is estimated that there are some two million displaced people, of whom barely a quarter have managed to register at a new address to vote. The rest of the displaced will have to vote in the places of the earthquake: “The problem is getting people there.”. It is expected that approximately one million people will not vote due to these circumstances.

Despite everything, it seems that the volume of participation will not decrease. The polls predict a record in these elections for the five million young people who will vote for the first time this year. According to Dr. Rodríguez, this young vote is attracted by the leader of the new Homeland PartyMuharrem Ince, who, thanks to social networks, “has a great pull among the young sectors and could take votes away from Kilicdaroglu and force a second round of the presidential elections.”

One of the electoral consequences at the international level is the role that Türkiye will adopt in foreign policy if the opposition wins. “What they are proposing is to redirect relations with the European Union in a positive direction – to try to resuscitate relations for accession – and with the United States and strengthen the anchorage within NATO, preserving their national interests”, sums up Dr. Rodríguez.

“Active neutrality” in the Ukrainian war

He biggest change, however, it isl referring to Russia, power to which they are linked by an indispensable relationship, since “it is the country from which Türkiye receives the highest percentage of its importsof which the energy sector is key”. The opposition proposal would be to balance these relations so that “they do not erode, as has happened in the past, their transatlantic relations”. They have also advocated for “carry out democratic reforms that improve their international projection”.

Regarding the war in Ukraine, Dr. Rodríguez thinks that “it is very possible that they follow the current line which has been defined as ‘active neutrality'”, which the opposition values ​​positively, because “it has allowed negotiations between kyiv and Moscow and collaborate in the agreement for the export of grain by playing at certain times a constructive role in the conflict”.