Emissions fall with the expansion of renewable energies, but coal still remains

For the first time since the post-Covid reopening, they decreased by 3% in March. Stable in the energy sector thanks to the increase in solar and wind energy, steel falls 8% while cement plummets (-22%). Expert: Regarding coal, a “significant” number of plants are still in the project stage.

Beijing () – Lights and shadows on the issue of the environment, “green” energy and sustainable development in Beijing. According to new studies, Chinese carbon dioxide emissions decreased last March for the first time since the economy reopened following lockdowns and restrictions imposed by the government to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. A significant figure that, according to experts, could represent the maximum peak reached by the Asian giant, one of the main global polluters, and this is due, among other things, to the expansion of its renewable energy capacity. However, coal investments continue to paint a bleak outlook for the future in terms of carbon emissions.

According to the results of the study by Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder and senior analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, the decline recorded two months ago by China is the result of the expansion of renewable capacity. This, in effect, has covered almost all of the increase in electricity demand, to which is added a significant drop in construction activity. If renewable energy capacity continues to grow at record levels, China’s emissions could have peaked in 2023.

In a text published in Carbon Brief, the academic recalled that according to official data, China’s carbon dioxide emissions decreased by 3% in March 2024 compared to the previous year. At a quarterly level, the value is still even higher than that of 2023, but that is related to the fact that the months of January and February 2024 were compared to the still slow period after the abolition of Covid restrictions -19 in December 2022.

March, says Lauri Myllyvirta, is “the first month that offers a clear indication of the emissions trend after the post-pandemic recovery.” And despite being a single piece of data, it confirms last year’s projections and suggests the main trends. Emissions from the energy sector stabilized thanks to the increase in solar and wind energy production, while those from the steel sector fell by 8% and those from cement fell by up to 22 percentage points compared to the previous year. This reflects a slowdown in the real estate sector that is likely destined to continue.

Meanwhile, the growing spread of electric vehicles continues to drive a decline in oil demand, as they now represent just over 10% of total vehicles in circulation, growing 7% over last year, according to the data. about the sales. At the same time, the total demand for electricity is growing, observes the expert, due to the increase in domestic consumption related to the purchase of air conditioners, but 90% of the additional demand in March was covered by renewable sources.

Much of the renewable energy comes in the form of small-scale solar energy, which contributes significantly to growth. In the first quarter of the year, solar and wind energy installations increased by 40%, although access to the grid remains limited. That’s why wind and solar still account for only 15% of electricity production in China, although authorities are taking steps to better integrate renewable sources into the grid.

However, China’s emissions trajectory remains uncertain, with differing views on the growth or slowdown of renewables. Furthermore, the government’s GDP growth and carbon intensity (emissions generated per units of GDP) growth targets suggest that Beijing could continue moving in the direction of increasing emissions. In addition, China continues to invest in coal and, although production capacity growth slowed slightly in the first quarter of 2024, a significant number of plants are still in the project stage.