Elon Musk sets low expectations ahead of SpaceX’s first launch of the Starship, the most powerful rocket ever built

() — Just months after NASA introduced the world to the most powerful rocket ever put into orbit, Elon Musk’s SpaceX is poised to launch his own creation, which could pack nearly twice the power of anything that has flown before.

– The SpaceX vehicle, called Starship, is currently on a launch pad at the company’s facility on the South Texas coast. The company is targeting takeoff at 8 a.m. local time (9 a.m. ET) this Monday, though it has the ability to take off anytime between 8 a.m. local time (9 a.m. ET) and 9:30 a.m. a.m. local time (10:30 a.m. ET).

“I guess I’d just like to set expectations low,” SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said during a “Spaces” Twitter event for his subscribers Sunday night. “If we get far enough from the launch pad before something goes wrong, I think I would call it a success. Just don’t exploit the platform.”

He added: “There is a good chance it will be postponed as we are going to be very careful with this release.”

It will be SpaceX’s first attempt to launch a fully assembled Starship vehicle, building on a years-long test campaign.

Musk has talked about the Starship, making elaborate presentations on its design and purpose, for half a decade, frequently harping on its potential to transport cargo and humans to Mars. Musk has even said that his sole purpose in founding SpaceX was to develop a vehicle like Starship that could establish a human settlement on Mars.

In addition, NASA has already awarded SpaceX contracts and options worth several billion dollars to use Starship to transport government astronauts to the moon’s surface under the space agency’s Artemis program.

The maiden flight test will not complete a full orbit around the Earth. However, if it is successful, it will travel some 240 kilometers above the Earth’s surface, at altitudes that are considered outer space.

Starship consists of two parts: the Super Heavy booster, a gigantic rocket that houses 33 engines, and the Starship spacecraft, which sits on top of the booster during launch and is designed to separate after the booster expends its fuel to finish the launch. mission.

The huge Super Heavy rocket booster will give the first burst of energy on liftoff.

Less than three minutes after liftoff, it is expected to expend its fuel and separate from the Starship spacecraft, leaving the propellant to dump in the ocean. The Starship will use its own six engines, running for more than six minutes, to propel itself at near-orbital speeds.

The rover will then complete a partial orbit around the planet, re-entering Earth’s atmosphere near Hawaii. It is expected to land off the coast about an hour and a half after liftoff.

What is at stake in this release

The ultimate success or failure of Starship is immensely important. Not only is it crucial to the future of SpaceX as a company, but it also underpins the US government’s ambitions for human exploration.

But it’s not all about traveling on this maiden test flight. SpaceX has long established its willingness to accept mishaps, mistakes and explosions in order to refine its spacecraft design.

In the lead up to the first launch of the company’s Falcon Heavy rocket in 2018, which held the title of most powerful rocket before NASA’s SLS took off last year, Musk envisioned only a 50-50 chance of success.

“People (came) from all over the world to see what is going to be a great rocket launch or the best fireworks display they’ve ever seen,” Musk told at the time.

The inaugural launch of the Falcon Heavy was finally a success.

how we got here

Starship development has been based at SpaceX’s private spaceport about 40 minutes outside of Brownsville, Texas, on the US-Mexico border. Testing began years ago with brief “jump tests” of early spacecraft prototypes. The company started with short flights that rose a few feet off the ground before evolving into high-altitude flights, most of which resulted in dramatic explosions when the company attempted to land them upright.

A suborbital flight test in May 2021, however, ended successfully.

On February 8, SpaceX workers make final adjustments to Starship’s orbital launch support and the booster array for the Raptor engines inside, ahead of the company’s engine test. (Credit: Reginald Mathalone/Nurpho/Associated Press)

Since then, SpaceX has also been working to prepare its Super Heavy booster for flight. The massive 69-meter-tall cylinder is equipped with 33 of the company’s Raptor engines.

Fully stacked, Starship and Super Heavy are about 120 meters tall.

SpaceX has been waiting over a year to get FAA approval for this launch attempt.

The company and federal regulators tasked with certifying that SpaceX launches will not pose risks to people or property in the area surrounding the launch site have faced significant pushback from the local community, including environmental groups.

But the Federal Aviation Administration, which authorizes commercial rocket launches, advertisement on Friday, April 14, that he agreed to the company’s request to test fly the rocket without a crew outside SpaceX’s South Texas facility.

“After a comprehensive license evaluation process, the FAA determined that SpaceX met all safety, environmental, policy, payload, airspace integration, and financial responsibility requirements,” the agency said in a statement. release.

During a call with reporters last week, an FAA official, who declined to be named for publication, said the agency has been monitoring SpaceX’s compliance with mitigation measures, some of which are still in place. process, even as the company prepares to launch

The FAA official said that government personnel will be on the ground to ensure that SpaceX complies with its license during the test launch.

NASA and the future of Starship

SpaceX’s contract with NASA to use Starship for the space agency’s Artemis III moon landing later this decade leaves much of the Starship development work to SpaceX. A $2.9 billion deal, signed in April 2021, was awarded to SpaceX over various competitors. It was later expanded to include a second moon landing mission in 2027.

NASA has been working for the past year to establish a workflow between the space agency and SpaceX. It’s a dynamic the two organizations have had to work out on previous SpaceX-NASA projects, including an ongoing partnership using SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft to fly astronauts to and from the International Space Station.

A lunar mission involves more powerful and complex hardware.

However, NASA is not involved in planning the flight profile for this test flight or directing SpaceX on what to do, according to Lisa Hammond, associate program manager for NASA’s Human Landing System at the Space Center. Johnson in Houston.

Hammond did not share a specific list of tests or flights that NASA hopes to see before Starship is entrusted with a moon landing mission.

“I wouldn’t put it with a number,” he said, adding that the Artemis II mission, scheduled for next year, will see humans fly on the SLS rocket after just one uncrewed test flight.

“Confidence comes from the design, confidence comes from the safety of the vehicle for the crew,” Hammond said.

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell previously said she expects the company to conduct more than 100 Starship orbital test flights before putting humans on board, as the company will need to do to help NASA pull off its lunar landing with the Artemis III mission, scheduled for 2025.

“I think that would be a great target,” Shotwell said Wednesday, when asked if that target was still achievable. “I don’t think we’ll do 100 Starship flights next year, but maybe (in) 2025 we’ll do 100 flights.”

NASA’s current timeline targets 2025 for the first lunar landing mission, in which astronauts will transfer from their Orion capsule, which will be launched on a NASA Space Launch System rocket, and onto a Starship spacecraft already in lunar orbit. It will be the Starship vehicle that will transport the crew to the lunar surface.

It is not clear, however, whether 2025 is feasible. NASA’s inspector general has already suggested that it isn’t. The delays, based on comments from the inspector general in March 2022, could revolve around Starship.