Eight months of “internal war” in Ecuador: what has happened since the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio?

In just one year, Ecuador has been plunged into a spiral of violence that has made it one of the most dangerous countries in the region.

He assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencioas well as local officials, are some of the guidelines taken by a panel of experts, who convened by the Inter-American Dialogue Center based in Washington, developed the online forum “Exploring the roots and realities of criminal violence in Ecuador.”

“We have increasingly violent deaths, and this is what characterizes the current scenario in Ecuador. There is also an endemic conflict within the penitentiary system and we have some areas where, as President Daniel Noboa highlighted in the declaration of the state of emergency, the intensity and magnitude of the current situation have exceeded the capacities of the State,” said Lorena Piedra, a professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Ecuador, on Thursday.

On August 9, 2023, armed men murdered the presidential candidate for the Movimiento Construye Ecuador party, Fernando Villavicencio, as he was leaving a political rally in Quito, a crime that has remained unsolved until now and is considered the most critical point in the escalation of violence.

Villavicencio had become a standard-bearer in the fight against corruption and was known for his statements against criminal gangs and drug trafficking.

“Outraged and dismayed by the murder of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio,” said then-President Guillermo Lasso.

Violence increases

At the beginning of 2024, the security crisis in the country worsened. In several prisons Groups of prisoners kidnapped prison officialswhich forced the deployment of a strong military force to free them.

A dozen hooded men assault Ecuadorian television station TC in Guayaquil on January 8, a day after Noboa decreed the state of emergency.

However, after the renewal of this measure, Ecuador would be far from eradicating the evil at its roots, since, Piedra analyses, there are “many improvisations and a lack of medium-term plans about what will happen next.”

The powers of the president

In light of the facts, there appears to be a lack of strength in the government structure in the Andean nation, according to Pablo Andrade, a political analyst and professor at Ecuador’s Universidad Andina Simón Bolívar.

“Ecuador’s political system, its political institutions, are designed for a strong president backed by a majority party in the legislature, and that happened for 10 years, but he did not have the capacity to keep the party united,” Andrade said, referring to former President Rafael Correa (2007-2017).

On the other hand, the analyst pointed out, President Noboa is “very authoritarian and decisive,” lacks legislative support, where he does not have a majority, but enjoys “enormous popularity among the population, as demonstrated by the recent referendum in April.”

Ecuador became the Latin American country with the highest growth in homicides in 2023, according to the study “Cartelization in Latin America” by the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences.

Data provided by the police to the agency Associated Pressthe year 2023 closed with at least 7,592 violent deaths, compared to 4,426 in 2022.

Upon assuming the presidency, Noboa used the same state of emergency that his predecessor Lasso had used to deploy troops and restrict traffic hours in half a dozen provinces.

Noboa, who promised to be tough and that he will not “negotiate with terrorists,” still faces obstacles in the legislature. A little over a month ago, he sent a message to the nation through social media in which he complained about such obstacles.

“Today, the National Assembly has once again demonstrated that it does not legislate for the people,” he said, reporting that his draft Organic Law seeking to toughen penalties for “crimes related to terrorism, arms trafficking and drugs” had been postponed for a second debate.

Prevalence of democracy

When asked how Ecuador’s governing institutions are addressing violence, Rebecca Bill Chavez, Director General of the Inter-American Dialogue, addressed the concept of “democracy as a continuum” in light of the erosion of political parties and the rise of populism in the region.

When questioning the panel about “whether Ecuador is still a democracy or not,” he said: “I think it still is. I think of democracy more as a continuum.”

The drivers for the prevalence of democratic values ​​also depend on the extent to which citizens have access to certain “added values,” according to Grace Jaramillo, professor of Global and International Affairs at the University of British Columbia.

“People lack jobs, jobs with good added value, or at least a constant flow of jobs that keep pace with population growth,” he said.

Based on recent studies, Jaramillo estimates that “60% of people in Ecuador are under 40 years old. If stable sources of employment are not created, how will the difficulties be overcome?” he says.

The support of the United States and the European Union for Ecuador’s security plans has become a cornerstone of the current situation.

“Speaking of strategy, you also have the ability to create allies with the United States (…) and on the Western front, not only the United States, the European Union, for example, can create that strategy, but that strategy must go beyond the mere securitization of responses,” he said.

In this regard, the United States has publicly committed to “fostering support for Ecuador’s fight against the terrible levels of violence at the hands of narco-criminal elements,” as expressed by the State Department after the visit of the Under Secretary of State for the Office of Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, Todd D. Robinson, to Ecuador in February of this year.

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