Economic slowdown would keep GDP variation close to 1%

This May 15th the economic growth report for the first quarter in Colombiawhich will be fundamental to determine how the fight against the slowdown that has affected various productive sectors for months progresses, while the bets of analysts and experts remain divided, although close to 1%.

Data such as the fall in investment, public and private, the ISE that has shown very timid growth or the 11.1% collapse in the industry and the 5.6% in trade that the Dane reported yesterday, are part of the prelude to what will be known in terms of Gross Domestic Product, which does not bode well for results.

(Read: Industrial production recorded a double-digit drop in March).

For Daniel Velandia, managing director of Research and chief economist at Credicorp Capitalif we take into account that economic activity surprised upwards in February, it is not unreasonable to think that the GDP for the first quarter would remain above 0.7%.

“We hope that throughout the first quarter the economy has been led mainly by the agricultural sectors, public services in the midst of the intense drought, the greater demand for electrical energy and very important generation through gas”Velandia said.

This expert added that “In the month of March we will surely have negative economic growth data. It is highly probable, but it is something clearly related to a calendar effect because Easter this year was in March and last year it occurred in April, which means that March this time had four fewer business days than last year. past”.

(Read: Minhacienda attacked the fiscal rule again: it does not guarantee sustainability).

On the other hand, for Cesar Pabón, director of economic research at Corficolombianain the first quarter of 2024 we will have to expect weak data, the product of a heterogeneous recovery.

GDP

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“We estimate that the economy accelerated its annual growth to 1.1%, from 0.3% in 4Q23, driven by the primary sector (agriculture and mines and quarries) and some services, including public administration and defense”Pabón said.

(We recommend: The threats facing the Colombian and Latin economies, according to ECLAC).

Corficolombiana’s analysis also highlighted that it cannot be ignored that The ISE surprised positively in January and February, although they add that growth is heterogeneous and driven mainly by the primary sectorswhile others don’t have a good time.

DANIEL HERNÁNDEZ NARANJO
Portfolio Journalist