DOOR TO THE EAST Elections in Israel, between the fragmentation of the Arab lists and the return of Netanyahu

The decision to appear divided could tip the balance and become an extra weapon for the former prime minister. But in case of high participation it could be crucial for the opposite side. The latest polls confirm the discontent: only about 40% of voters intend to go to the polls.

Milan () – In the political elections called in Israel for November 1 – the fifth electoral round in three and a half years, confirming an institutional framework of deep uncertainty – the Arab vote is of crucial importance. Unlike in the recent past, the lists are not presented together – the last break and the decision to present themselves separately was a few days ago – and this circumstance could give rise to different reactions in the electorate. Some observers, in fact, believe that it will lead to greater internal competition, to different and even contrasting electoral visions and strategies. With a final result that could become a double-edged sword: on the one hand, to invigorate the Arab vote and guarantee a massive turnout at the polls or, on the contrary, to encourage disaffection and abstention, with disastrous electoral results and political consequences. . With the added effect of paving the way for the return to power of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who can build his own success on divisions between rivals. One more time.

parties and leaders

Last week the deadlines for the presentation of the lists that will participate in the elections and will give life to the 25 Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, since the founding of the country, expired. Participating in the competition is the right-wing Likud party, led by former Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is once again a candidate to be the most voted, although the battle of numbers and alliances – as has happened in the past – does not guarantee leading government. Then there is the secular center party, Yesh Atid, led by the current Prime Minister of Israel Yair Lapid, who succeeded Naftali Bennett on July 1 in the rotation agreement at the head of the Executive. It should be remembered that the former Yamina leader has no intention of running.

Then there is the National Unity Party (comprising the Blue and White movement): the leaders are Benny Gantz and Gideon Sa’ar. And finally the far-right Religious Zionist Party, founded in 1998 and led by Itamar Ben-Gvir. Among the alliances that are oriented towards religious and social conservatism are Yitzchak Goldknopf’s United Judaism in the Torah; the ultra-Orthodox world identifies with Shas, whose leader is Arye Dery. And always on the front of the right, which has long dominated the Israeli political landscape, we find Avigdor Lieberman with Israel Beiteinu. The reformists refer to Merav Michaeli’s Israeli Labor Party and, further to the left, Zehava Galon’s Meretz party. Finally, the Arab world, this time much more fragmented than in the last round of elections, starting with Ayman Odeh’s Hadash – Ta’al, then we find Mansour Abbas’s United Arab List, the most novel element of the last elections. Linked to Arab nationalism with leftist sympathies is Sami Abu Shehadeh’s Balad party. And finally, we find the Jewish, Zionist, religious and far-right House, headed by Ayelet Shaked.

The (dis)united Arab front

Unlike the last elections, this time the Arab front has not been able to find a unity of purpose and present itself as a compact whole to the voters, among whom there is poorly concealed disaffection if not outright disillusionment, which could lead to massive abstention. The United Arab List – a party capable of federating four formations of different orientations between communism, nationalism and political Islam – obtained the best result in 2020 with 15 seats thanks, among other things, to the strong mobilization of Arab citizens, which reached 65% of the voters. However, in the March 2021 elections, support plummeted and he won only 6 seats. However, one of the parties (Ra’am de Abbas, inspired by the Muslim Brotherhood and pro-conservative) has distinguished itself by leaving the alliance to join the government coalition of the Bennett-Lapid tandem, expelling the eternal Netanyahu from power. However, this coalition, as was later seen in the events, was held together almost exclusively by opposition to the former prime minister – on trial for corruption – and was unable to resist even the first blows, which led to the need to once again resort to the polls.

In recent days there has been a new fracture on the Arab front, which threatens to nullify the possibilities of influence of this component of Israeli society in the political landscape and within the institutions. The Arab nationalist Balad party will compete against the other two and, if it fails to overcome them, its votes will end up wasted. The break-up also risks extinguishing the last remnants of hope and enthusiasm, with polls reporting a share of Israel’s Arab citizens – around 20% of the total population – at around a (miserable) 40%, clearly beneficial to Netanyahu and his alliance, which encompasses the right wing, ultra-nationalists and religious Jews.

An uncertain future

Analysts and experts say that with a participation of the Arab world below 55%, the prospects of success for the former prime minister would be almost certain. On the other hand, a good turnout combined with the fragmentation of the Arab parties would pave the way for a collaboration with the center and center-left bloc, perhaps truly ending the Netanyahu era, the phoenix of Israeli politics. and the pivot of the political and institutional life of the country in the new millennium. Sami Abou Shahadeh, leader of Balad, accuses the other two Arab parties (Hadash and Ta’al) of not wanting to negotiate, abandoning him a few hours before the deadline for submitting the electoral lists.

Israeli Arab citizens have close family ties to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, and largely identify with their cause, leading many Israeli Jews to view them with suspicion. Arab citizens have made remarkable gains in health care and many other fields in recent decades, but they continue to face widespread discrimination. The latest polls speak of a head-to-head between Netanyahu and Lapid, but once again the Arab vote could make the difference. With one caveat: in case of a new failure of the various alliances in the field, the final prospect of a new vote. The sixth. And it is not political fiction in the current scenario.

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