Although in the last two days there have been small increases in the price of the dollar in Colombiathe appreciation (revaluation) of the peso this year, which reaches 13.26%, has the currency at $42 at the same level as a year ago.
(See: The dollar continues with the upward trend at the end of June).
He dollar in Colombia began the last week of the first semester trading with increasesalthough it still remains below $4,200.
The currency opened this Monday at $4,180 and the maximum price it reached was $4,200 and the minimum was $4,141.15 pesos.
In the end, the average trading value of the dollar was $4,172.64.
In this way, the Representative Market Rate for today, Tuesday, is $4,172.33.
Experts say that the price of the currency in the coming months and until the end of 2025 could range between $4,200 and $5,100.
Anyway, macroeconomic scenarios, uncertainty about domestic policies that would generate country risk and external situations such as future rate hikes in the United States by the Fed or falls in the prices of the main basic products could affect the revaluation trend.
According to the Monthly Survey of Economic Expectations of the Banco de la República, the bearish behavior that the dollar is having in recent weeks would continue.
The currency would stabilize above $4,200, demonstrating a considerable change in expectation, taking into account that some sectors raise the possibility that the dollar will return to levels above $4,500.
Diego Rodríguez, CEO of Bosk Capital, said that “The market was technically oversold for several days, so a bounce was expected.”
On the other hand, The global currency market reacted negatively to the 50 basis point increase in interest in England and other central banks.
(See: The Mexican ‘superpeso’, the currency that adds losers and winners).
Diego Gómez, exchange specialist at Corficolombiana said that at the local level “We have a currency that is one of the most volatile both in times of appreciation and depreciation. That, added to the fact that technical analyzes suggest that values close to $4,100 suggest dollar oversold”.
According to According to a Bancolombia analysis, the lag in the Fed’s monetary policy in relation to prices and concerns about an economic recession in the US could favor some stability for the current federal funds rate.
But the inflationary pressures in the core component and the strength of the labor market would reduce optimism in the markets about possible rate cuts in the second half of this year.
However, an improvement in the perception of country risk and a favorable global context for the region would be consistent with our optimistic scenario for the exchange rate, which would be close to $4,420 towards the end of the year.
In additionthe recent strength of the peso would favor an average exchange rate of around $4,450 for the second quarter.
The Uncertainty about the FED’s road map led to a slight strengthening of the main currencies in the region and said that in the short term, the exchange rate is expected to remain above $4,080, as a reference level, and below $4,251.
(See: How Argentina’s financial situation is boosting the yuan).
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