Dina Boluarte celebrates 100 days of government amid uncertainty in Peru

President Dina Boluarte celebrates 100 days of government in Peru this Friday.

Boluarte assumed the post on December 7, after dismissal and pretrial detention of former left-wing president Pedro Castillo for the alleged crime of rebellion and conspiracy in attempting to establish an emergency government.

After the constitutional succession, Boluarte has faced protests and low popularity among Peruvians. Recent polls by IPSOS, Datum, CPI and the Institute of Peruvian Studies (IEP) showed 70% disapproval of the president, particularly in the interior regions of the country.

58.1% of Peruvians believe that corruption increased during the Boluarte administration, according to surveys, and 73% believe that he should resign to facilitate the advancement of the general elections, as requested by the majority.

So far, Boluarte has said that he does not intend to resign.

blunders

The political scientist José Alejandro Godoy maintains that in these first 100 days, the Boluarte cabinet has had among its main challenges the search for ways to survive and face the multiple protests and mobilizations, which until March 10 had left at least 66 killed, 48 of them civilians, in clashes with security forces.

“He has managed to survive because of the alliances he has in Congress. There is a kind of tacit and implicit pact on the part of the government and Congress to stay until 2026,” Godoy explained to the VOA.

Among the failures, the professor based at the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru points out that the government has not made a categorical statement regarding the more than 60 deaths that occurred during the demonstrations and that were reported by the Ombudsman’s Office. “He has not provided much information, he has denied in many cases that the deaths were caused by the forces of order.”

In this context, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has given the Peruvian government a period of 60 days to provide information on the death of protesters and on the actions of law enforcement. The Peruvian Prosecutor’s Office is currently investigating President Boluarte and her Prime Minister Alberto Otárola for the alleged crimes of genocide, homicide and serious injuries.

Godoy anticipates that he does not rule out a possible new wave of protests at a time when opinion polls show Boluarte’s unpopularity. The disagreements with his management -he explains- would worsen because “the advancement of the electoral calendar and the unsatisfactory response to those who died in the social protests have not been resolved.”

In turn, this analyst believes that Boluarte is politically weak because he does not have a parliamentary bench and for now he has circumstantial allies in the opposition among those who confronted Castillo in December. Godoy does not rule out a possible change of scenery, as was the case of the vacancy of former President Martín Vizcarra in November 2020, just months after he handed over the position.

Roberto Chiabra, a congressman from the Alianza para el Progreso party and former defense minister, told the VOA that the government of Dina Boluarte has been characterized by reacting late to the protests. “It took three days to employ the Police and the disaster that occurred in Apurímac and Ayacucho was caused,” she emphasized.

According to Chiabra’s opinion, the current president lacks the conviction to make decisions that avoid problems in the country and questioned the management of her prime minister Alberto Otárola: “Nobody wants to talk with him and he has lost the confidence of the Armed forces”.

He has also suggested urgent actions to tackle the crisis. “The president must realize that, when there is an emergency, the cycles last a short time. She has to make some changes within her cabinet, mainly Interior and Defense. If she has not realized in this time that she must make decisions, it will be difficult for her to manage the country ”.

In these 100 days of management, Boluarte has had two cabinet changes. Among the positions that he has rotated is the prime minister and the portfolios of Interior, Education, Culture, Work, Women, Production.

The impact of the crisis on the economy

The economy has been another challenge for Peru in the current situation. Recent data indicates that economic activity contracted by 1.12% in January compared to the same month of the previous year, after presenting 22 months of uninterrupted growth.

The National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) indicated on Wednesday of this week that one of the most affected sectors was mining, which had a decline of 3.61%. Peru is the second world producer of copper.

“The result of the month of analysis was influenced, among other factors, by social conflicts that led to the stoppage of work, road blockades, forced closure of markets, impediment to the free movement of people and merchandise, which occurred in some areas of the country” , indicated the Peruvian institute.

José de Echave, economist and former Vice Minister of Environmental Management, alluded during an interview with the VOA the proposal known as ‘With Punche Peru’, which aims to transfer resources to areas where social conflict is reported without taking into account the level of tension that exists in regions such as Puno, where protests against the president continue.

“[El plan ‘Con Punche Perú’] not only was it focused on a short-term reactivation and relief to the family economy, but a bill was presented to close the social gaps in terms of infrastructure and an attempt to reform the public sector”, said Luis Miguel Castilla, Former Minister of Economy of Peru.

The expert maintains that “these two aspects of economic management have been positive despite having a very negative context of distrust of citizens, of social conflict and now, recently, of possible contingencies of natural weather disasters that the country is experiencing. “I think the Economy Ministry has acted appropriately,” he said.

De Echave, however, is very cautious in determining how much the economy can be reactivated with the government’s measures. “Sectors such as mining and tourism can reactivate relatively quickly depending on how the conflict changes. The post-pandemic scenario makes me think that it can happen, ”he added.

A few days ago, the Peruvian Ministry of Economy reported that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow above 3.1%. Meanwhile, the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) indicated that it would be between 2% and 2.6% this year.

Both analysts consulted by the VOA They agree that the BCR projection is more credible due to the complicated scenario observed internationally with the permanent war between Russia and Ukraine or China’s financial situation. “The Peruvian economy is very vulnerable to what happens globally,” De Echave said.

Analysts estimate that most of the country’s growth depends on external conditions. “60% of the variability of growth depends on global growth and the price of commodities. We are still in a process of fighting global inflation and that, let’s say, limits the recovery of the economy,” said Luis Miguel Castilla Rubio, former Minister of Economy.

Castilla Rubio believes that it will be essential for public and private investment to grow this year. However, he added that this must go hand in hand with a solution to the political crisis that, for now, does not have an end to the trapping of early elections. “As long as this uncertainty persists, it limits the ability of the economy to recover,” he concludes.

complicated relationships

Dina Boluarte’s government has also had to defend its legitimacy abroad. The crisis in Peru is closely watched by the international community. Even days before Castillo’s dismissal, a high-level mission from the Organization of American States (OAS) was in Lima to gather information on what happened.

Gattas Abugattas, Master in Diplomacy and International Relations from the Diplomatic School of Spain, explained to the VOA that Boluarte’s management “has carried out an intense work of the image of Peru in the face of the attacks of the presidents of the socialism of the 21st century.” His statement is a reference to the governments of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Mexico), Gustavo Petro (Colombia) and Luis Arce (Bolivia) who had disagreements with the head of state.

“The actions of the Foreign Ministry have followed diplomatic practice. It has been sought that these countries [México, Colombia y Bolivia] act in accordance with international law because they are violating it by meddling in the internal affairs of Peru,” added the specialist who hopes that the diplomatic tension with the block of countries of leftist governments, which are critical of the Boluarte presidency, will not escalate further. .

On the other hand, Abugattas maintained that Foreign Minister Ana Gervasi had to face a very complex situation that she knew how to solve quite well with a series of measures such as an intense campaign from embassies in different nations to explain what really happened in December of last year. when former President Castillo tried to install an “exception government.”

Óscar Vidarte, Master in International Relations from the Pontificia Universidad Javeriana of Colombia, remarked to the VOA that the foreign policy of Boluarte’s management has been characterized by showing a message of great intolerance in various passages of these months and he highlighted the numerous protest notes that were given.

“A foreign policy that is built on that [notas de protesta] It should be considered,” he noted. Vidarte also mentioned that the confrontation with other Latin American nations became a habit. “For some it could be necessary, while for others it is not, but the truth is that this is not positive,” he said.

He assured that another group of countries closer to Peru view everything that is happening with concern. “Countries like Ecuador, for example, experience similar situations. So, they are concerned about what is happening in Peru and what is the region’s response to the way protests are dealt with.” The specialist mentioned that the Boluarte government has tried to convene the UN and the inter-American system to show that they did not use a policy of repression of the protests.

The VOA required a comment from the State Department on how the White House has seen the handling of the hundred days of the Boluarte government. “We remain committed to supporting the democratic institutions of Peru, the rule of law and the protection of human rights,” they said. “The United States supports a peaceful political process for Peru,” they responded.

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