Delfina Gómez, from the Together We Make History coalition, leads the elections for the governorship of the State of Mexico

( Spanish) — The National Electoral Institute of Mexico reported the first results in the local elections of the State of Mexico and Coahuila that took place this Sunday, June 4. The elections in the first state elected a governor and in the second, governorship and deputies.

The most recent estimates published by the INE place the candidate Delfina Gómez in first place, for the Together we make history coalition in the State of Mexico (PVEM, PT and MORENA), with 52.1%-54.2% of the votes.

He is followed by candidate Paulina del Moral, for the Va por el Estado de México coalition (PAN, PRI, PRD and NAEM), with 43%-45.2%.

Citizen participation in this estimate was between 48.7%-50.2%, with an electoral roll of just over 12 million people.

Meanwhile, in Coahuila, the estimates, with a confidence level of 95%, correspond to the votes counted at 8:25 pm local time this Sunday, and give the advantage to Manolo Jiménez Salinas, Alianza Ciudadana por la Seguridad (PAN, PRI, PRD) with 55.7%-58.2%.

The importance of elections in the State of Mexico

This election is not only seen as a state process, but as a thermometer on the possible preferences of voters towards the 2024 presidential election.

The State of Mexico is the federal entity with the largest number of inhabitants in the country, 16.9 million, according to 2020 figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). With an electoral roll of 12.6 million, the weight of the vote in the State of Mexico is significant.

To exemplify its dimension, this is approximately equivalent to the total number of inhabitants of El Salvador and Nicaragua together.

“It is 60% of the electoral roll of all of Central America, it is also the electoral roll equivalent to Chile and it is bigger than Uruguay and Paraguay combined. We are talking about a very large mass of votes,” explained Bernardo Barranco, a political analyst and Former Electoral Counselor of the State of Mexico.

Delfina Gómez (R), candidate for governor of the State of Mexico for a coalition led by the ruling Morena political party, unofficially celebrates having been elected governor of the State of Mexico in Toluca, State of Mexico, on June 4, 2023. ( Photo by CLAUDIO CRUZ/AFP via Getty Images)

Due to its electoral size, the State of Mexico is, in turn, a fundamental space to measure the power of the parties. “It is the main barn of votes at the national level, both for the PRI and for the PAN. Here they have the highest number of votes nationwide. For Morena, here she also has first or second place in the number of votes at the national level”, explains Professor Juan Carlos Villarreal Martínez, from the Autonomous University of the State of Mexico.

For this reason, analysts believe that what happens in the elections in the State of Mexico could be a laboratory for the 2024 presidential elections.

“This percentage (of the State of Mexico) may be a final orientation prior to the elections on the 24th, which are presidential elections,” says Barranco.

“Whoever intends to achieve a good result in next year’s elections has to win the State of Mexico yes or yes. In the case of Morena, he would not only reach 23 governorships but would govern more than 60% of the nominal list, ”says the academic Villarreal. “For the coalition of Vamos por el Estado de México, winning it is vital to arrive in better conditions to compete in 2024.”