Could Europe live without Russian gas?

First modification: 07/23/2022 – 04:21

An uncertain supply. Russia has cut the amounts of natural gas that Europe uses to power factories, generate electricity and heat homes in winter, and Russian President Vladimir Putin this week decided to further reduce the flow, citing technical problems.

Before the annual repairs, flows through Nord Stream 1 were reduced by 60% and were expected to remain well below the pipeline’s full capacity. Right now they are around 40%. The West feared the pipeline might not be reopened at all, saying Putin is using the energy to apply political pressure in his confrontation with the European Union over the war in Ukraine.

But the clipping comes from before the invasion. Russia was not selling gas on the spot market anytime soon and after the EU imposed sanctions on Russian banks and companies, Moscow cut off gas to six countries and cut supplies to six others.

For example, flows to Germany, the EU’s largest economy, fell by two-thirds, with Russia blaming a portion that was sent to Canada for maintenance and not returned due to sanctions. Europe denies the accusation, calling it a political maneuver to create uncertainty and drive up energy prices.

The concern about gas revolves around the arrival of winter, when demand increases and utilities draw on their reserves to keep homes warm and power plants running.

Europe’s gas reserves are currently only 65% ​​full, against a target of 80% by November 1. Europe would need to save 12 billion cubic meters of gas, the equivalent of 120 LNG tankers, to fill its storage levels in winter.

What can Europe do?

For now, the bloc has taken refuge in the more expensive liquefied natural gas that arrives by ship from the United States and Qatar.

Just this week, fears of a Russian gas cutoff prompted the European Union to urge member states to voluntarily reduce their gas consumption by 15% over the next few months. The European Commission, the EU’s executive body, will seek the power to impose mandatory cuts across the bloc if there is a risk of serious gas shortages.

The search for alternative supplies intensifies. The leaders of Italy, France and the European Union concluded agreements with their counterparts from Algeria, Azerbaijan and the United Arab Emirates.

How much has the flow of Russian gas in Europe fallen?

After the West imposed sanctions on Russian banks and companies, Moscow cut off gas to six countries and cut supplies to six others. Flows to Germany fell by two-thirds, with Russia blaming a portion that was sent to Canada for maintenance and not returned due to sanctions.

Russia supplied 40% of Europe’s natural gas. But the figure has fallen to 15%, sending prices soaring and putting energy-intensive industries in a bind. Although the continent could resort to coal and other energy sources to replace Russian gas, a step that until now the old continent has avoided.

The International Energy Agency has recommended that the bloc intensify campaigns for people to conserve at home and prepare to share gas in an emergency.

with AP