confrontation between the prime minister and the president, with the risk of an institutional stalemate

Tensions continue between the Christian Michel Aoun and the Sunni Najib Mikati. As a background, the contrasts between the pro-Iranian faction and the Western bloc. The possibility that General Jospeh Aoun is a conciliatory element. The coming weeks will tell whether Lebanon moves towards confrontation or opts for pacification.

Beirut () – In a few days – the first of September -, as established by the Constitution, the term for the election of the successor to the head of state opens. Michel Aoun’s mandate expires in two months, on October 31, and in Lebanon the political situation is confused. The country lives in an institutional chaos that involves both the government and the presidential office, in a climate of continuous confessional tensions between the president himself and the acting prime minister, Najib Mikati.

Regarding the presidency, observers fear that there will be a vacuum in the supreme judiciary, in the absence of a parliamentary majority capable of electing the head of state in the first round, with 85 of 128 votes. The internal situation in Lebanon continues to be polarized by the cold war between the United States and Iran. The forces on the ground are, on the one hand, the Free Patriotic Movement (PLC), supported by the Shia tandem Amal-Hezbollah, and on the other the pro-Western camp, which calls itself “sovereignist”, and whose backbone is the Current of Future (Sunni) and the Lebanese Forces (Christian).

While neither side can elect a president, both could prevent a two-thirds quorum in the House from being reached. An essential step, the latter, in view of the opening of the electoral session. In the event of a presidential vacancy, to guarantee the principle of institutional continuity, the Lebanese Constitution establishes that it is up to the Council of Ministers to temporarily assume presidential prerogatives.

The question is whether these prerogatives can be assumed by a resigned Council of Ministers, whose task is only to handle current affairs. And today, it is precisely this point that unleashes internal controversy. The presidential camp is convinced that this is not possible, while the pro-Western camp thinks differently. In all this, there is no authority that can act as an arbiter of the Constitution, to interpret the controversial elements and decide on the matter – with the exception of Parliament, which only complicates the situation.

On this point, the views of President Aoun and Mikati do not agree. The second was appointed by the new Assembly that emerged after the May elections, with the aim of forming a new government. Mikati is negotiating with the head of state from a position of strength: in fact, he performs two functions at the same time, that of acting prime minister and the second as president of an interim government called on to deal with daily affairs. In addition, while President Michel Aoun tries to save the resigning executive by inserting six new Ministers of State who represent the main parliamentary currents, Mikati wants to replace the Minister of Energy, close to the CPL, with a view to forming an independent “regulatory authority” for the sector. . A reform that has been requested by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with which Lebanon is holding vital negotiations for its economic future.

Some voices claim that in the absence of a new government, presidential prerogatives cannot be assumed by a resigning government. These same voices appeal to the head of state to remain in office until an agreement is reached between him and the current prime minister on the formation of the future Executive. However, this possibility is seen as an outrage by Dar el-Fatwa, the highest body of reference for the Sunni community, which called on the president to “respect his constitutional oath.”

There are currently three serious candidacies for the next presidential elections: Gebran Bassil, the leader of the North Sleiman Frangié and the army commander, General Joseph Aoun, who is not related to the current head of state. However, experts agree to rule out the choice of Bassil or Frangié, as one is too closely linked to Hezbollah and the other to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

According to former deputy Mohammed Obeid, of the Amal movement, the intermediate solution would consist of making changes to the current government, but without expecting anything in return. And in the election of General Aoun, whom neither of the two parties seems to see as a “rival candidate”. The coming weeks will tell whether Lebanon is moving towards a period of sterile confrontations or towards a substantive agreement that guarantees pacification.