Not even the most loquacious of European leaders has dared this Sunday to jump into the spotlight of X to comment on the victory of the National Group of Marine Le Pen in the first round of the legislative elections in France. The watchword in Brussels and in the capitals was silence respectful of democratic procedures. Waiting for the final result on July 7. A silence that does not hide, but rather highlights, the deep concern in the EU on the French results.
The radical and eurosceptic right He has already come to power in Hungary, Italy and now in the Netherlands. Austria will probably join in September. She was at the head of the Government in Poland for eight years and was defeated. The European Union resists. But the case of France would be different. Not only is it one of the founding countries and the second European power, but it is (along with Germany) the driving force of European integration. Le Pen’s coming to power in the second round threatens to become engine of the disintegration of the EU.
“I am worried about the elections in France,” admitted the German chancellor, Olaf Scholzone of the few to dare to publicly express his discontent, in an interview last Sunday on public television. “I hope that the parties that are not Le Pen have success in the elections“, he added.
[Victoria del RN de Le Pen en la primera vuelta y sus rivales piden unir el voto contra la ultraderecha]
For her part, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has ruled out any kind of collaboration with Marine La Pen at European level, which contrasts with her rapprochement with another leader of the radical right, Giorgia MeloniParties such as National Rally “are friends of Putin and want to destroy Europe,” said Von der Leyen in the central debate of the 9-J campaign.
The victory of the far right leads France to a head-on clash with the European Union on a multitude of policies. Perhaps of most concern in Brussels is the position of Jordan Bardella, the candidate for prime minister, on Ukraine. National Reunification has traditionally been close to Vladimir Putin and even received a loan from Russia. Since the outbreak of the invasion war against Ukraine, Le Pen has tried to distance himself from the Kremlin, but his turn is not convincing in the EU.
In the campaign, Bardella has said that his absolute red line is that will not allow the sending of French instructors to kyiv to train Ukrainian soldiers, as Macron has suggested he will do. National Regrouping is also against Ukraine’s entry into the EU, just when accession negotiations have just begun.
In theory, it is the president, not the prime minister, who has powers over defence and foreign policy. But Le Pen has already threatened to cut Macron’s aid budget for Ukraine.Chief of the Armed Forcesfor the president, is a honorary title since it is the prime minister who pulls the purse strings. “Jordan has no intention of fighting him, but he has drawn red lines: In Ukraine, the president will not be able to send troops,” said the leader of the National Group.
Another source of conflict in European politics in the event of cohabitation between Macron and Bardella is the appointment of the next French commissioner in the new team of Ursula Von der Leyen. Macron has announced that he intends for Thierry Breton, who currently holds the Internal Market and Industry portfolio, to repeat a second term.
However, Marine Le Pen maintains that the power to appoint the French commissioner does not lie with the president but with the prime minister. “It is clear that Mr. Breton has not defended the interests of France during his term in office,” said the leader of the National Rally, who has not, however, revealed who her candidate is.
Bardella has also promised during his campaign that he will immediately demand a cut of 3 billion euros per year in France’s contribution to the EU coffers, which in 2024 amounted to 21.6 billion euros. With this money he intends to finance some of the policies he has announced in the campaignsuch as the reduction from 20% to 5.5% of VAT on fuel and energy.
This promise is impossible to fulfill. according to the current rules. “From a legal and procedural point of view, Mr Bardella cannot put his promise into practice because we have already agreed on the EU multiannual budget for 2021-2027. A framework that clearly sets out what each country pays and receives. In this seven-year period, no changes are possible,” EPP vice-president Siegfried Muresan told EL ESPAÑOL.
The unexpected electoral call announced by Macron on 9-J caused a storm in the markets, which has led to a sharp rise in France’s risk premium. The victory of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in the first round of parliamentary elections threatens to aggravate the turmoil due to fears that her promises of increased public spending and unfunded tax cuts in a country with high deficits and debt will not be met.
In fact, Brussels has just launched a excessive deficit procedure against Francewhich in 2023 recorded a budget deficit of 5.5% in 2023 and a public debt rate of 110.6%. The risk is a contagion effect to other countries such as Italy or Spain that triggers a debt crisis.
All eyes are on the European Central Bank (ECB), which has a new debt-buying tool: the Transmission Protection Instrument, which is activated to counter turbulence not justified by economic fundamentals. The ECB must be prepared to deal with political riskssaid the governor of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta.
“Apart from political uncertainty, I don’t see any concrete reason for financial instability. The economy is advancing, inflation is low and monetary policy is on a loosening path, although we don’t know exactly how fast. And we have our fiscal rules that also contribute to stability,” the Commissioner for Economic Affairs said in a recent interview with EL ESPAÑOL, Paolo Gentiloni.
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