Climate change also impacts terrorist activity

April 5 () –

Alterations in weather patterns induced by climate change are contributing to changes in the location of terrorist activity.

An exploratory study led by Dr. Jared Dmello, an extremism expert at the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Adelaide, Australia, found that Some climatological variables affected terrorist activity in India.

“Suitability analyzes indicate that all climatological variables analyzed (temperature, precipitation and elevation) are related to changing patterns of terrorist activity,” says Dr. Dmello it's a statement.

“The population density of urban centers has increasingly increased, particularly in spaces with favorable climates, and some of the more remote areas that were once used by extremists have experienced increasingly dynamic climates that are no longer suitable for human habitation, which forces these groups to migrate to other places.

It was not only the intensity of these climatological variables that led the terrorists to move to new places, but this change in terrorist activity was also seasonal.

“This research shows that stopping the harmful effects of climate change is not just an environmental issue but It is directly related to national security and defense” says Dr. Dmello, who was recently announced as the inaugural recipient of the Early Career Award from the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences' Crime Prevention and Security Section.

“In this study, we focused on the location of the attack, but the data also suggest that other forms of extremist behavior, such as the location of training, “They are probably also changing in response to climate change.”

The study, published in the Journal of Applied Security Researchfocused on terrorist activity in India between 1998 and 2017, a period during which there were 9,096 terrorist incidents recorded by the Global Terrorism Database.

“Average temperatures in India reached record levels during the 20 years of our study“said Dr. Dmello.

“This time period represents a wide enough range to demonstrate climate change, while leveraging the most recent reliable data covering both climate change and extremism dimensions for the country.”

This new and evolving understanding of how climate change affects patterns of terrorism is important knowledge for governments around the world, including Australia, to take. serve as a basis for defense and national security strategies.

“While terrorism and violent extremism manifest differently in Australia, with much lower levels of attacks than in India, Radicalization remains a major challenge here and the Australian Government has set it as a national priority“says Dr. Dmello.

“To effectively mitigate radicalization, other critical issues, such as homelessness, food insecurity, water and energy crises, and greater social equity, are essential to ensuring a safer space for all of us.”

Dr Dmello, who joined the University of Adelaide in early 2024, also recently co-edited a book examining security in the Arctic from a multidisciplinary perspective and will continue his research into terrorism and extremism in the Australian context.

“Some of my recent projects have sought to understand how emerging issues impact radicalization here in Australia in an effort to find ways to partner with government and law enforcement to avoid commitment to extremist ideologies,” he says.

“I am also interested in expanding my research in this area to investigate the role of food and water inequalities in radicalization around the world.”