‘Claudianomics’, between the fiscal deficit, Pemex and the T-MEC

It will also have to rethink the allocation of public resources with an analysis of social and financial profitability, as well as maintain fiscal sustainability by avoiding more debt for current spending.

In the first four months of the year, the Treasury reported a record in the fiscal deficit, as it stood at 377,540 million pesos (mp), the largest amount on record. since January-April 2021, when it reached 132,820 million pesos.

Meanwhile, the public debt reached 15.4 trillion pesos, increasing 10.7% compared to January-April 2023.

Increase income

In the Sheinbaum economic proposals for its management, Sheinbaum has mentioned that the social welfare programs will be guaranteed, even expanded, and in the infrastructure part, the network of trains, highways, roads, ports and airports will be extended.

José Ignacio Martínez Cortés, Coordinator of LACEN-UNAM, points out that to achieve this, spending on social programs must be increased and public investment in infrastructure must be scaled up. In fact, the law says that the request for credit by the public sector must be to invest that money in projects that help boost the economy.

“This requires a comprehensive tax reform to promote human development with sustainable territorial growth,” he says.

According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in Mexico “there is scope to raise more revenue from property taxes, environmental taxes and make the tax system more effective and progressive by reducing of tax deductions that benefit the richest.”

Mariana Campos Mexico Evaluates considers that changes are necessary to generate income, also because the money generated by the sale of oil to the country has been reducing, and next year it will be lower due to the forecast of a lower price of crude oil.

The Center for Economic and Budgetary Research (CIEP) states that it is important to encourage a public debate about the available options and the time necessary to achieve budget balance. “This will not only achieve economic stability, but also protect the well-being of future generations.”

Banca Mifel comments that the future president will enjoy a very short “honeymoon”, because she must urgently address issues associated with public finances and Pemex.

He adds that the fiscal deficit is unprecedented and is not sustainable, and approximately 16 percentage points of GDP would be added to public debt in one year.