Exports have been a vital growth driver for the Chinese economy, which remains weighed down by a prolonged real estate crisis and shaky consumer confidence. Although economic leaders can take comfort in the fact that recent measures keep the economy on track for a growth target “around 5%”, challenges such as possible increases in US tariffs cloud the outlook for 2025.
US President-elect Donald Trump, who will return to the White House next week, has proposed imposing heavy tariffs on Chinese products, sparking fears of a new trade war between the two superpowers.
Adding to the challenges, unresolved disputes with the European Union over tariffs of up to 45.3% on Chinese electric vehicles threaten to hamper China’s ambitions to expand its auto exports and help address deflationary overcapacity concerns. .
“Trade concentration became more visible in December as a result of the effects of the Chinese New Year and Donald Trump’s inauguration,” said Xu Tianchen, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. China’s most important holiday is celebrated from January 28 to February 4.
“Import growth could be supported by the accumulation of reserves of raw materials such as copper and iron ore, as part of (China’s) ‘buy cheap’ strategy,” he added.
Outbound shipments rose 10.7% year-on-year in December, customs data showed on Monday, beating the 7.3% growth forecast in a Reuters poll of economists, and bettering November’s 6.7% rise.
Imports surprised on the upside with 1.0% growth, the highest since July 2024. Economists expected a 1.5% decline.
China’s trade surplus grew to $104.8 billion last month, up from $97.4 billion in November. Its trade surplus with the United States increased to $33.5 billion in the same period, compared to $29.81 billion the previous month.
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