Chinese President Xi Jinping likely considers it too risky to accept US President-elect Donald Trump’s invitation to attend his inauguration, and Trump’s gesture could have little impact on the increasingly competitive relationship between the two countries in the current situation of change of administration, say experts.
Trump’s incoming press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, confirmed Thursday that Trump invited the Chinese president to the Jan. 20 ceremony. The Chinese embassy in Washington said it had no information to provide, but experts say Xi is unlikely to travel to Washington next month.
Why wouldn’t Xi attend?
“Can you imagine Xi Jinping sitting outdoors in Washington, DC, in January, near the podium, surrounded by US congressmen, looking at Donald Trump as he delivers his inaugural address?” said Danny Russel, former deputy secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs.
Russel, who now serves as vice president of international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said Xi would not allow himself “to be reduced to the status of a simple guest celebrating the triumph of a foreign leader, who is nothing more and nothing less than the president of the United States.”
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank, said China will opt for security when there is no protocol or precedent for a Chinese leader to attend the inauguration of a US president.
“I don’t think the Chinese will take any chances,” Sun said, adding that guests could include Taiwan’s top diplomatic representative to the United States, who attended President Joe Biden’s inauguration in 2021. China views Taiwan as part of its territory and has repeatedly warned the United States that this is a line that should not be crossed.
If Trump imposes tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods upon taking office as he has threatened, Xi would look like a fool if he had decided to attend, and that would be unacceptable to China, Sun said.
Rather, Chinese officials are known for their obsession with the dignity and safety of their leader when they travel abroad, said Russel, who has negotiated high-level summits with the Chinese. “They have always demanded that any trip by a president to Washington be treated as a ‘state visit’ complete with all the honors that entails,” Russel said.
What does the future hold for relations between the US and China?
However, plans are already underway for Trump and Xi to meet in person soon, Russel said. Trump prefers in-person meetings with foreign leaders, especially key adversaries, and China may believe it can get a better deal by dealing directly with Trump, Russel said.
Trump’s return to the White House is expected to further intensify the rivalry between the United States and China. Trump has chosen several officials for his Cabinet who favor an aggressive policy toward China, including Senator Marco Rubio, whom he nominated as Secretary of State, and Representative Mike Waltz, whom he nominated as White House National Security Advisor. .
China has adopted a “wait and see” approach to what happens after Trump’s inauguration, but says it is prepared to fight back if the United States increases tariffs on Chinese products or implements other hostile policies.
Sun, of the Stimson Center, warns that Trump’s invitation does not exclude hostile policies toward China. Trump visited China in 2017 and “behaved in a friendly manner,” but the following year he started the trade war, he said.
“We’ve seen this before,” Sun said. “For Trump, there is no contradiction between incentive and punishment. For China, that is a contradiction. “This will increase China’s desire to play it safe, not to be manipulated by Trump, whether through a friendly or hostile message.”
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