The recovery of the Chinese economy after the lifting of anti-covid measures it will take a few months and once its demand for gas and other products will skyrocket, entering into direct competition with Europe and pushing up the price of this fuel. This is the projection made in an interview with EFE by the chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Beata Javorcikon the new economic horizon that opens after the reopening of the asian giant after two years of restrictions due to the pandemic. “The lifting of restrictions due to the covid is a double edged razor for the global economy. In the short term, economic growth in China will cool down, but in a few months there will be a rebound effect, with the global impact that this implies”, he pointed out in a section of his participation in the Davos World Economic Forum.
Javorcik has said that the influence of Chinese demand will push up the price of natural gaswhich, although it has fallen in recent months, “in real terms is at record levels that had not been seen since 1981″. “If we believe in future markets, gas prices will increase in the coming months and will not drop until 2026. 2023 will be a difficult year and the high price of gas will affect the competitiveness of the centers European industrialists”, he anticipated.
The economist has pointed out that 2022 was -despite the multiple crises- “a better year than expected” because in the first half of the year consumers in many countries spent the accumulated savings during the pandemic, which fueled growth.
At the same time, the winter in the northern hemisphere it is being smoother than expected, which has allowed several companies to switch to alternative fuels, he added.
trade intermediation
On war in Ukraine, the EBRD’s main economic adviser, has said that it is difficult to think of returning to economic normality if the armed conflict does not end, particularly given the uncertainty that this situation causes in Europe. “If the war continues, there is always a possibility of escalation, which would disrupt food exports and then there would be pressure on global food prices,” she explained. On the other hand, she has commented that the negative impact that it was feared that the war would have in the countries of Central Asia, dependent both on remittances sent from Russia, and on the latter’s logistics and infrastructure for their exports. According to the bank’s analysis, Central Asian countries have become intermediaries for trade between West and Russia, subjected to international sanctions for its military aggression against Ukraine. “Statistics indicate that there was a big drop in direct trade with Russia, but there was a strong increase in exports from the West to Central Asia, and an increase in exports from this region to Russia. In other words, trade does not go directly from the West to Russia, but goes through Central Asia,” he explained. In the first months of the war, 2,000 Russian-funded companies were registered in Kazakhstanwhich may be playing a key role in the trade intermediation.
Isabel Saco. EFE.
