CHINA The XX Congress of the Chinese Communist Party begins on October 16 (Covid permitting)

It should confirm Xi Jinping as head of the country for a historic third term. His staying in power could be the result of an agreement with the opposing factions. However, the pandemic is weighing on the economy and putting the Chinese leader in a less secure position.

Beijing () – The 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will open on October 16. The government agency Xinhua reported yesterday the decision of the Politburo, the political body of the Party.

The Congress is considered to be a crucial step for the future of China, as it should confirm Xi Jinping as head of the CCP (and therefore of the state) for at least another five-year term. His re-election would break the practice since Deng Xiaoping of leaders serving only two five-year terms in office.

Xi has been laying the groundwork to stay in power since 2018, when he amended the constitution to remove presidential term limits. Most observers see the Chinese president as seeking a life term, following in the footsteps of Mao Zedong.

With Xi still at the helm, the composition and size of the new Politburo Standing Committee (the real decision-making body of the regime, currently made up of seven members), and the election of the prime minister who will replace Li Keqiang, will tell if his victory has been full or fruit of a decisive mediation with the opposing factions.

Rising tensions with the US, led by Taiwan’s status, and the troubled state of the Chinese economy could dampen Xi’s chances of victory. What worries the government the most are the economic effects of the continuous confinements due to Covid-19. The Chinese president has imposed a strict “zero tolerance” policy on the virus, criticized by many in the country.

Tens of millions of Chinese are forced to live segregated in their homes due to not even 2,000 daily cases of contagion throughout the country (official figures, impossible to verify independently). The results for the Chinese economy are evident: in August, industrial activity registered a new contraction. Analysts continue to lower annual GDP growth forecasts even to 3%, well below the 5.5% set by the Government at the beginning of the year.