Until recently avoided for commercial traffic between the East and Europe due to its excessive costs, the trans-Caspian route has now become the most viable solution, with relations with Russia blocked by the Ukrainian conflict. The World Bank estimates that 11 million tons of goods will pass through it by 2030. But Beijing’s decision will largely depend on its growth.
Astana () – Regional conflicts always have a major influence on global trade relations, forcing many countries and companies to seek alternative routes so as not to block the dynamics of the economy. This is the lesson imposed by the events that began in 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which shattered all trade ties, as well as provoking reactions of mutual hostility at various levels.
The so-called “Middle Corridor,” several thousand kilometers long, between China and Europe via Russia, has long been the main trade channel between the East and West, with railways, transport terminals, ports and airports. Now everything is in question. In fact, most logistics facilities were built betting on the northernmost option, considered stable and less expensive, and Russian railway companies had assumed the leading role in the connections between China and Europe.
Now, war and sanctions have forced them to look for alternative routes, and transit between Europe and Asia “is becoming more complicated and expensive every day,” says Romana Vlagutin, a member of the German Marshall Foundation and former EU Special Representative for Mutual Cooperation. The southernmost or “trans-Caspian” corridor, which was previously avoided as much as possible due to the extremely high costs, long waiting times at borders and ports and poorly developed logistics infrastructure, is becoming increasingly important. Today, says Vlagutin, it has become “the shortest and most multifunctional, also taking into account the interest of the Central Asian countries in developing ever closer and more effective relations with the European Union.”
Statistics suggest that the volume of cargo will increase from 350,000 tons in 2020 to 3.2 million tons in 2022, and World Bank researchers predict that trade volume will reach 11 million tons by 2030, albeit with all the limitations that still exist on the Russian “bypass” route. According to Georgian expert Emil Avdaliani, professor of international relations at Tbilisi University, “a lot depends on what China thinks about the effectiveness of this route, because without Chinese cargo there will not be enough energy to expand it and improve its efficiency.”
However, the European Union has begun to support infrastructure projects in the various countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus, making around 10 billion euros available for the transport network from January 2024 and opening special representations for these initiatives in Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Kazakhstan. One of the initial milestones is the city of Urumqi, capital of the autonomous Chinese province of Xinjiang, which is gradually becoming one of the main centres of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. Urumqi is connected to important centres such as Xi’an, capital of the Chinese province of Shaanxi, 2,500 kilometres away, and points in the direction of Kazakhstan, a country also linked by its common Turkic ethnic groups and connected by an extensive network of railway lines, from where the Middle Corridor starts.
From eastern Kazakhstan, Caucasian Georgia is reached via two major routes, the Dostyk route opposite Russia and the Khorgos route, further south and where most investment is concentrated, called a “dry port” despite being 2,500 kilometres from the coast. Chinese cargoes are transferred to Kazakh trains using large winches and continue south via Aktau and the main city of Almaty to the Caspian Sea, where transport is blocked for weeks before continuing through Georgia to Turkey and the Black Sea. The aim is to reduce the journey to 12 days, from 19 via Russia and 23-37 in the Indian Ocean. But for now it is still a long wait.
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