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From hearing so much Russian propagandists talk about World War III, we forget that its most probable scenario is still the Pacific Asia, where all the conditions for a resounding outbreak of war are given. The mixture of uncontrolled nuclear powers -North Korea- with technological giants of an imperial past -Japan-, Anglo-Saxon allies -Australia- and a totalitarian superpower wanting to grow and grow -China- is already fearsome. The problem is that to this we must add diffuse borders, Hundreds of islands claimed by different countries and the feeling that only the external threat from the United States makes the balance hold.
Now, for how much longer? This same Tuesday, the Biden administration announced a new shipment of fighter-bombers and high-tech weapons to South Korea to increase its deterrence capacity against the threat of kim jong un. The United States has military bases throughout the Pacific and its fleet patrols the ocean, always alert for the unexpected. The so-called “fourth crisis of the strait”, caused by the visit of the former speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan, was already about to set off all the alarms. In the end, things calmed down because Xi Jinping was preparing the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, but for a few days, the rest of the world held its breath, something to which, unfortunately, we are getting used to.
It will be another thing when the People’s Republic of China decides to annex Taiwan, an almost obsessive impulse of President Xi. For seventy-five years, Beijing has resisted the temptation to invade the island of Formosa and overthrow the Nationalist government. Post-war US deterrence together with a poor economic situation in the country have made this possible. Now, things have changed. China now has a powerful enough army and weaponry to attempt annexation by force. In turn, the United States has too many holes to plug to impose the fear and respect that has been a guarantee of security for decades.
[Joe Biden muestra su rechazo a ofrecer aviones de combate a Ucrania]
The conflict is served and the question is not so much if it will end up exploding, but when and with what consequences. In this sense, last Friday, a strange memorandum signed by General Michael Minihan, one of the Pentagon’s senior air defense officials, was leaked to the press and published on social networks, in which he asked all units that depend on their command to leave preparing already for a war with China in 2025. The year in which, according to Minihan, all the circumstances exist for Xi launches his attack on Taiwan.
a lurking war
The Minihan memo, recognized as authentic by the Pentagon, although immediately denied, is undoubtedly an major threat to Beijing. It is the express recognition – no matter how much it tries to qualify it officially – that the United States is willing to go to war with China if things get complicated in the Taiwan Strait. It could even be understood that its leak is itself an alert to the Chinese government to discourage it from going any further. In Beijing, as was foreseeable, she has not gone down well.
What is General Minihan based on to make his prognosis explicit in this way, to the point of turning it into an order for his subordinates? There are several paths that converge in 2025. To begin with, it is the year that Xi himself has repeatedly mentioned as the year of the start of annexation. Besides, it’s Post-election year in the United StatesIn other words, it is a year of changes in the administration: not only a possible new president, but new secretaries of state and defense, new diplomatic posts and new military chiefs if Mark Milley decides not to continue as head of the General Staff, something that will has hinted several times.
Minihan believes that such “distractions” may encourage Xi to launch his attack. The secretary of defense Lloyd AustinHe does not believe that the attack is so “imminent”, but, as Joe Biden did at the time, he does not rule out that a confrontation between Taiwan and mainland China could lead to an open war between Washington and Beijing, two nuclear powers. In fact, the very use of the word “imminent” is revealing: Austin does not reject the possibility of a war, he simply delays it in time.
[Todo o nada: por qué ir enviando armas poco a poco para no enfadar a Putin puede ser mala idea]
Blinken, with Ukraine on the agenda
China’s reaction has not been long in coming, even though it has been interposed by a country. After eleven months of refusing to openly condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, affirmed on Monday that it was the United States “that triggered the crisis in Ukraine”, following the ideology of the Putin’s government and its propagandists. Furthermore, she accused Washington to be the most responsible that the conflict remains open, for his determination to send more and more arms instead of “seeking peace”.
It is unlikely that these statements imply a change of position on the part of the Chinese government, which, although it has not wanted to be against Putin throughout these months, has not positioned itself in favor either, always appealing to the right of states to its territorial integrity. Yes, they are a warning before the imminent visit of the secretary of state Anthony Blinken, who is expected in Beijing this week or next. China is a key player in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict for several reasons.
The main one is that the West needs Chinese neutrality. Putin cannot rely militarily on such a powerful ally. The secondary is that, as Igor Girkin -terrorist affiliated with the Putin regime and convicted of war crimes- commented on Russian television this Monday, part of Russia’s inability to destroy infrastructure in Ukraine is that a good part of the bridges, the tunnels and railways are Chinese built and controlled, as is the case in much of the world. They represent a trade route with Europe that Beijing does not want to see destroyed.
Blinken’s visit is aimed at continue the talks that Biden and Xi had at the last G20 meeting in Bali. What environment will be found after this exchange of accusations and threats is difficult to know. Diplomatic relations between the two countries have been complicated for decades, but they are still there. General Minihan’s memorandum included a significant “I hope I’m wrong” and the truth is that in that hope we are all doing a lot. There are only two years left to find out.
