China and Japan are immersed in a silent escalation of military tensions. The reason: the seas

Throughout history, relations between China and Japan have been complicated. After decades of invasions into their own territory or landings with the aim of annexing territories, the height of the Second Sino-Japanese War was reached. In China they still remember the Japanese invasion, so much so that being pro-Japan is a terrible offense that can sink businesses. On the military and political spectrum, things are not much better.

The two countries are in a dispute for control of the adjacent maritime space and the situation is reaching levels of tension that could be dangerous. These are not offenses over the name of an aircraft carrier, but violation of territory and sale of weapons.

China and its neighbors. The territorial problems of the past are something that is still valid. Taiwan is an example, being an independent country, but with China considering it as its territory. There are many occasions in which we have seen threats from the Chinese government directed against the country, recreations of areas of Taipei to carry out maneuvers and, for its part, defense movements in Taiwan. The situation with Hong Kong is not much better and in recent months we have been seeing a reinforcement of the Chinese military arm focused on control of its seas.

Japanese rearmament. The Japanese are not being left behind and, without the belligerence in their messages that some Chinese representatives show when they talk about territories such as Taiwan, they have reinforced their armed force in recent months. Article 9 of Japan’s Constitution prevents acts of war by the state, but a Defense budget was recently presented that points to a rearmament movement.

The new strategy is an investment plan of 43 trillion yen in five years, until 2027. This means from not reaching 1% to investing 2% of its GDP in the military arm. In euros, it amounts to 63 billion a year and the objective is to position itself as the third military power in the world, only surpassed by the United States and China.

Japan complains. Taking into account this current situation, Japan has recently informed of the presence of Chinese ships near the Diaoyu Islands (or Senkaku, as they are known in Japan). They are islands whose control was unclear until Japan nationalized them in 2012. The problem is that they are now Japanese waters and Tokyo complains about the constant presence of the Chinese Maritime Police navigating the area.

China also claims that area, which is why they consider it to be under the control of Japan and the trips of Japanese authorities to the islands to be an act of provocation. Japan, for its part, believes that these islands are its own and seeing Chinese ships within the 12 nautical mile limit for 158 consecutive days is an irresponsible act on China’s part. The previous record occurred in 2021, when China had a presence in the area for 157 days, but this time they seem determined to remain in the area for longer.

China too. On the other hand, China also has complaints about Japan. In this disputed area, the United States usually acts as a control vehicle to deter China, but analysts they estimate that, as they are busy with both the Ukraine and Gaza wars, someone must take on the role of security provider in the region. And that role may fall to Japan.

The reason is that Japan has sold five patrol boats to the Philippines that will be delivered between 2027 and 2028 for about $507 million. According to Manila, this is a step forward in the “unwavering commitment of the two countries to enhance our maritime security capabilities for the benefit of our nation and the broader maritime community.” This may represent an aggressive move towards China. In fact, they claim that strengthening the Japanese military and making allies would damage regional peace and maintain American hegemony.

Tension escalation. and strength. At the moment, it seems that this tense calm is being resolved with statements from everyone while, at the same time, they continue to make their movements. What is clear is that it is going to be increasingly complicated to operate in the area. Between 2013 and 2022 alone, China added 148 warships, which was roughly Japan’s total number. Currently, China is estimated to have 370 vessels and the number is expected to increase to 435 by 2030. The United States has 280 vessels.

But it’s not just about ships, since the Philippines is arming itself with those ships purchased from Japan, but also with supersonic missiles that they bought to India in a $375 million deal. We will see what all this leads to, but another point to highlight is that China has not forgotten Taiwan and is broadcasting propaganda videos in which it attacks the island in an act that may cross the line of provocation.

Images | 海上自衛隊Google Maps

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