Chessboard in the Indian Ocean: India vs. China

India and China have recently made progress in resolving tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, agreeing to resume patrols at key friction points. This diplomatic breakthrough represents an important step in the ongoing negotiations. However, China’s recent intensification of interest in the Indian Ocean suggests that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is continuing its ambitious initiatives in the region, adding a complex strategic layer to bilateral relations.

China has shown interest in the Indian Ocean for centuries. The Chinese naval commander Zheng He, between 1405 and 1433, led the expeditions known as the “Treasure Voyages of the Ming Dynasty,” whose official goal was to spread Chinese goodwill. However, these missions also sought to expand China’s power and influence in line with its geopolitical ambitions of the time.

Zheng He commanded a fleet of around 300 ships and 28,000 men, which sailed to Sri Lanka, where he faced resistance from King Vira Alakeshvara, a heroic leader in Sri Lankan history. Alakeshvara opposed Zheng’s aggressive trade tactics, but was defeated and taken prisoner to the Yongle Emperor’s court. Although he forgave him, he was replaced by Parakramabahu VI. The death of the emperor and China’s financial difficulties put an end to these expeditions, allowing emerging European powers to begin to recognize the strategic importance of the Indian Ocean. Today, 80% of the world’s oil and more than 40% of global cargo transit through this region.

Strategic relevance in the Indian Ocean

In his 2010 book Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Poweranalyst Robert D. Kaplan argues that South Asia will play a crucial role in global power alliances in the 21st century, with the Indian Ocean as the focus point. This analysis coincides with the US “Pivot to Asia” strategy implemented during Barack Obama’s mandate. India, aware of this new relevance, has developed “Look East” and “Act East” policies to integrate into regional dynamics.

Western powers see India as a key player in the current world order and consider its influence in the Indo-Pacific essential to counter the rise of other powers. From a geopolitical perspective, the term “Indo-Pacific,” first used in 1920 by Karl Haushofer, has been revived as a call for India to take on a greater role in the region.

Naval power and its global influence

Historically, the rise of great powers has been linked to their naval capabilities. Examples such as the British Empire, the Republic of Venice, and the Dutch Empire highlight how naval power defines global influence. During the Cold War, naval forces played a crucial role in the rivalry between the US and the USSR. Today, China understands this importance and has rapidly expanded its maritime forces, placing the Indian Ocean at the center of its power strategy.

China has avoided major conflicts over the past four decades, using this time to strengthen its industrial and military complexes. This cautious strategy has allowed the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to position itself as a major player, with the goal of establishing a bipolar world alongside the United States. However, India is emerging as a third power on the international stage. According to Niti Aayog’s Dr Arvind Virmani, the West’s hesitancy has allowed China to expand its influence, which has now led the US to adopt a more purposeful strategy to ensure security in the region and form alliances in Asia.

India and its maritime ambitions

Currently, the Indian Navy has approximately 130 ships and submarines and 250 aircraft, with plans to expand towards 2035 and 2050. Its role as “First Responder” and “Preferred Security Partner” in the Indian Ocean has been supported by recent missions that They underline their operational capacity. These missions, especially after 2020, have cemented the prestige of the Indian Navy, which has carried out rescue operations during the COVID-19 pandemic, anti-piracy missions and humanitarian relief missions.

Recent statements by Defense Minister Rajnath Singh have sparked speculation about the construction of a third aircraft carrier, which could further strengthen India’s position in the Indian Ocean and, eventually, the Indo-Pacific.

In contrast, China’s Navy (PLAN) could have more than 475 naval platforms, including six aircraft carriers, by 2035. Although the United States has downplayed China’s numerical advantage, a US Naval Institute study suggests that the size of the fleet could provide China with a significant advantage in times of conflict. History shows that larger fleets have been decisive in past conflicts, as Stalin emphasized: “Quantity has a quality of its own.”

India’s strategic position

India does not intend to compete in size with the naval ambitions of the United States or China, but rather to take advantage of its geographical location. With a fleet of 185-200 modern ships and submarines, India can strategically meet the needs of the Indian Ocean, consolidating its role in the region without matching China’s total capacity.

Despite its numerical superiority, China faces challenges at the choke points of Malacca and Hormuz. Relying on foreign ports, China sees India, with its 212 ports, expanding its influence in the Indian Ocean, especially in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Laccadive Islands, with strategic bases such as INS Baaz and INS Jatayu. Furthermore, India’s refusal of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) complicates Chinese interests in the region, such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which faces issues of militancy and local resistance.

India as an emerging power

India has evolved from a reluctant power to an active one on the world stage. The Indian Navy has proven its capabilities not only in evacuation missions of Indian citizens but also foreign nationals from conflict zones. During emergencies, such as the earthquake in Türkiye or the water crisis in the Maldives, India has intervened, gaining respect internationally.

In this framework, India sends a clear message to China: any attempt to undermine Indian security could have significant consequences. With Chinese trade volume of $900 billion transiting the Indian Ocean, any disruption in the region could pose a real threat to China. Although India maintains a policy of friendly relations, this new India will not tolerate provocations in its sphere of influence.

This complex geopolitical context reinforces the importance of the Indian Ocean, where strategy, diplomacy and naval power are redefining relations between India, China and the rest of the world.

Note: this is an article republished from the media “Defence Research and Studies” through a cooperation agreement between both parties for the dissemination of journalistic content. original link.