Cheap and profitable decarbonized energy is possible by 2050

Sep. 13 () –

Achieving a rapid transition to clean energy, with net zero emissions, by around 2050 is possible and cost-effective, according to a new study published in the journal ‘Joule’.

The work, reviewed by researchers from the University of Oxford, ensures that the transition to a clean energy system would save at least 12,000 million dollars compared to the current use of fossil fuels.

The research shows a win-win scenario, where the rapid transition to clean energy results in lower energy system costs than a fossil fuel system, while providing more energy to the global economy and expanding access to energy to more people around the world.

The study’s “rapid transition” scenario shows a realistic future for a fossil-free energy system around 2050, providing 55% more energy services globally than today through increased solar, wind, batteries, electric vehicles and clean fuels such as green hydrogen (made from renewable electricity).

Lead author Dr Rupert Way, a postdoctoral researcher at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment in Oxford, says it’s a statement that “previous models, which envisaged high costs for the zero-carbon energy transition, have deterred companies from investing and made governments nervous when establishing policies that accelerate the energy transition and reduce dependence on fossil fuels“.

“However, the costs of clean energy have fallen dramatically in the last decade, much faster than those models expected,” he continued. “Our latest study shows that the expansion of the main green technologies will continue to reduce their costs, and the faster we do it, the more we save. Accelerating the transition to renewable energy is now the best bet not only for the planet, but also for energy costs.“, Add.

The researchers analyzed thousands of transition cost scenarios produced by leading energy models and used data on: 45 years of solar power costs, 37 years of wind power costs, and 25 years of battery storage.

They found that the actual cost of solar energy fell twice as fast as the most ambitious projections of these models, revealing that, over the last 20 years, previous models grossly overestimated the future costs of major clean energy technologies versus reality.

There is a misconception that the switch to clean and green energy will be painful and costly and will involve sacrifices for everyone, but that’s a mistake“, says Professor Doyne Farmer, who leads the team that has carried out the study at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School.

The costs of renewable energy have been falling for decades. They are already cheaper than fossil fuels in many situations and, according to our study, they will be cheaper than fossil fuels in almost all applications in the coming years. And, if we speed up the transition, they will get cheaper faster. Complete replacement of fossil fuels with clean energy by 2050 will save us trillions“.

The study shows that the costs of major storage technologies, such as batteries and hydrogen electrolysis, can also be dramatically reduced. Meanwhile, the costs of nuclear power have risen steadily over the past five decades, so it is highly unlikely to be cost competitive in the face of falling renewables and storage costs.

Professor Farmer adds that “the world is facing a simultaneous inflation, national security and climate crisis, all caused by our reliance on high-cost, unsafe, polluting and volatile-priced fossil fuels.”

“This study shows that ambitious policies to dramatically accelerate the transition to a clean energy future as quickly as possible are not only urgently needed for climate reasons, but can save the world trillions in future energy costs,” he said. giving us a cleaner, cheaper and more energy secure future.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, fossil energy costs have skyrocketed, causing inflation around the world. This study, carried out before the current crisis, takes these fluctuations into account using fossil fuel price data for more than a century.

The current energy crisis underscores the study’s findings and demonstrates the risks of continuing to rely on expensive and unsafe fossil fuels. The research confirms that the response to the crisis must include accelerating the transition to clean and low-cost energy as soon as possible, since this will mean benefits for both the economy and the planet.