Challenges and opportunities of global population ageing: analysis

When last week Joe Biden confused the name of the company at a press conference Vice President Kamala Harris with that of his archrival Donald Trumpincluding the members of the team that accompanies him in the White House They frowned. And it was just a few minutes before, in the framework of the celebrations of the summit of the NATO In Washington, he had already upset the Ukrainian president’s Volodymyr Zelensky with that of Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

Although a mistake – or two, actually – is something that can happen to anyone, the times in American politics are not ripe for making mistakes of this magnitude.

Again, after what happened, inside the Democratic Party Expressions of discontent have increased over the stubbornness of the current president, who at 81 years old refuses to step aside and let someone younger take over.

(You may be interested in: Miguel Urrutia’s legacy: more relevant today than ever).

Because, to put it bluntly, the race for what is described as the most powerful job on the planet has been centered on the ability of the current occupant of the Oval Office to perform his or her duties. While Trump is almost watching from the sidelines, Biden finds himself under constant scrutiny, while losing ground in the polls.

Beyond the outcome, The controversy raises the dilemma of whether a person over 80 years old can carry out responsibilities such as the one mentioned above.In this regard, doctors who study the subject will say that there is no general answer, but that each individual is different.

Even so, the public tends to simplify things, as many people think that the date of birth implies an expiration date, like the one applied to airplane pilots – who cannot fly after 65 – or to those who occupy certain positions, sometimes in the private sector and others in the state.

In contrast, what science shows is that among human beings reality is very heterogeneous, since it is not always biological age and chronological go hand in hand.

(You can read: How the crypto wave is impacting the financial ecosystem in Latin America).

Far from diminishing, the discussion is sure to become more intense. The reason is that humanity is aging at an accelerated rate, which means that the most diverse societies – such as the Colombian one – will have to consider and probably revise their attitudes towards older adults.

That change is still underway was confirmed last Thursday when the United Nations released its latest exercise in projections on global demographics. According to the organization, The number of inhabitants on the planet will continue to increase until reaching nearly 10.3 billion within six decades..

Old age

iStock

From that point on, the total would begin to slowly decline, so that by the end of the 21st century it would be at 10.2 billion. The difference may seem minor, But the bill is 700 million less than what was made ten years ago..

Reaching the peak of the population much earlier than was believed until recently is related to several factors, although especially to the drop in birth rates. According to the UN, 63 countries that contain more than a quarter of the world’s population have already reached their peak in terms of population.For example, China, Germany, Japan or the Russian Federation are in that group.

(You can read: ‘Young people have among their priorities learning a second language’).

As if that were not enough, 48 more nations or territories will enter the same category in the next three decades. Colombia is within this group, since by the middle of the century it would have just under 57 million people and would begin its downward path, according to Dane forecasts..

As this happens, increasing life expectancy and advances in medicine will allow individuals to live longer. Back to the United Nations, Within half a century, the number of people over 65 years of age would total more than 2.2 billion, a figure that would be higher than that of those under 18 years of age..

Population

Abel Cardenas / Portfolio

Even by the middle of the next decade there will be 265 million octogenarians, a figure that would exceed the total number of children under twelve months old. As can be expected, Those moments will arrive much earlier for places where their inhabitants have already begun to decrease..

Colombians, for their part, will experience something similar. Currently, nearly one in nine is over 60 years old, But in 2030 the proportion will rise to one in six, in 2050 to one in four and in 2070 to 36 percent of the population.No less striking is that octogenarians in this last year represented almost 10 percent of the country’s inhabitants.

(We recommend: Petro warns about the dangers of the climate crisis: ‘Colombia would be uninhabitable’).

Given the recent decline in the number of children per woman in the country – which stands at 1.2 on average, one of the lowest in the world – it is likely that the scenario described will become reality much sooner. If we add to the above the migratory movements, concentrated especially among the youngest, it does not seem far-fetched that in Colombia gray hair will take over in a relatively short period of time..

However, what matters is to look to the future with open eyes. The reason is that we must evolve towards what is a very profound demographic change.which requires fundamental institutional adjustments. If these are done well, what could be a crisis can become a great opportunity.

Old age

iStock

Imagining what the future is like mentally drawing a pyramid that is divided into ages. For a long time, This was very wide at the base because there were many more children and young people.but now it resembles a rhombus whose waist begins to rise as the average rises.

Such a perspective implies challenges. Some of the most obvious are related to the size of the school population, which is gradually beginning to decline, something that is clearly noticeable in capitals such as Bogotá. How education adapts in terms of available places and teacher training – which will be proportionally less in demand in the initial grades – is something that requires good planning..

(Read also: Eight out of 10 people are worried about their future, according to a report).

Another key area is health, as the cost of health care increases as people get older. The improvement of more than a decade and a half in life expectancy since the entry into force of the Law 100 of 1993 It is directly related to the expansion of coverage and the reduced out-of-pocket spending of Colombian households.

However, now that the insurance model is being abandoned and a more public-focused scheme is being adopted, there is a valid doubt as to whether the resources and mechanisms that come into effect will be sufficient to guarantee the well-being of older adults. And the mystery goes beyond complex procedures, as it begins with the availability of appointments and medications for such common ailments as hypertension..

Old age

iStock

The list cannot be without anything related to pensions. If anything draws attention to the reform that has just been approved by the Congressis that a structure that already constitutes a very heavy burden for the national budget will be replaced by an even more onerous one.

So much so that within a few years it will be inevitable to talk about raising the retirement age and the number of weeks of contributions, because otherwise the State will be unable to cover a liability that is equivalent to almost twice what the economy produces annually. In addition to how special regimes are managed that privilege certain segments of the population – such as members of the Armed Forces – and are a great financial burden in light of the increasing longevity.

(More: What is the ‘fast track’ that Petro proposed at the UN for the 2016 peace agreements).

There is also the other side of the coin, which has to do with individual and social preferences. In cultures such as the Japanese, The participation of older adults is increasing, not only because there are people who want to improve their monetary income but also their emotional health..

Contributing with the voice of experience, feeling useful in the community, learning another trade, are some of the explanations heard when people aged 70 or older are asked why they want to continue working. A broader view shows that a greater presence in certain jobs reduces the bottlenecks associated with the lack of qualified people, which are increasingly common in rich and emerging nations.

Population

Milton Diaz / Portfolio

However, there are many cases of misunderstanding among younger people. Prejudices of various kinds combine to demand that forced retirement continue, which is why, Educational work will also be required in order to change attitudes and make better use of the potential of the elderly..

Among the many ideas being heard is the need to carry out periodic tests to assess issues such as motor skills, reflexes, cognitive abilities or certain symptoms that may become a limitation. Driving a vehicle, a company or a country does not necessarily depend on how many birthdays one has under one’s belt, but that requires a discussion on objective parameters, on which there are disagreements.

Experts such as Frieder Lang speak of the need to prepare, which has to do with individual responsibilities and those of society as a whole. Others note that the term ‘third age’ should be supplemented with a fourth stage, Well, there are more phases of life than seemed to be defined until recently..

Such reflections should be more present in Colombia, a country that still feels young, but is becoming less so. Pioneering efforts, such as those of the Saldarriaga Concha Foundationwhich has devoted significant human and monetary resources to the issue, deserve to be imitated and continued.

(Read more: The million-dollar reward offered by Colombia and the US for the Aragua Train bosses).

Old age

iStock

The reasons abound.“Aging is a global reality that concerns us all,” says Lina Maria González, Health and Wellness Leader of the aforementioned Foundation. She adds that the new paradigm “requires a different perspective, which implies moving forward, a life purpose that adjusts over the years, a continuous openness to continue learning, which is combined with new income options where entrepreneurship plays an essential role.””.

And as far as Colombia is concerned, the specialist highlights the efforts that have been made, especially in health. She adds that “Today the challenges must focus on continuing what has been achieved, ensuring a care system that cannot continue to wait, promoting educational paths since learning does not expire with age and including, among other actions, greater social participation of the elderly who today are decisive in democratic results.”.

(You may be interested in: Are you in group A of Sisbén? The subsidy programs you can apply for).

As is clear, the roadmap is broad for a process that has already begun and that requires good public policy in this regard. Without going too far, the most recent Development Plan has positive elements, as long as it is fulfilled..

In conclusion, the task must be carried out judiciously, just as it is required for a more mature nation that can benefit from the wisdom that comes from experience, because the years do not come alone.

RICARDO AVILA
Analyst for EL TIEMPO