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The sales of new cars in Spain and in Europe will once again register falls in this 2022 about to end, a market that continues without seeing the end of a crisis that, for the moment, does not show signs of get back to normal short term.
And it is that the Recovery global levels of car registrations and production worldwide will delayAt least until the end of 2024, according to estimates by the rating agency S&P.
The calculations of the terms for the recovery to pre covid levels of sales and production of the sector globally are due to the deterioration of macroeconomic conditions. In the best of scenarios, it foresees a stagnation in global passenger car sales and a growth of production between 3% and 4%, although analysts have worsened their forecasts for the United States (USA) and Europe, while those for the Chinese market have improved, which they have described as “thriving”, due to its resilience despite its zero covid stance.
Specifically, the declining economic conditions in Europe and the United States are the main factors behind the decline in S&P’s previous estimates for these markets.
In USAthe agency anticipates a drop of between 4% and 6% in passenger car registrations this year compared to the 2% increase estimated last March, while in Europe a drop of 10% is expected.
The decline in the United States will lead the country’s auto industry to record minimum volumes that have not been seen for a decadeforecasts based on weaker demand due to the mild recession he believes the United States will have in 2023, including a “modest” GDP growth of 0.2%.
The outlook for Europe according to the credit rating agency points to falls in sales volumes to your lowest point in more than two decades due to the indirect impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
economic slowdown
The agency expects that by 2023 the european economy slows sharply, with GDP growth falling from 1.8% to 0.3%, and does not rule out the possibility of a full-blown recession. He also points out that the consumer confidence it has also plummeted after a dramatic increase in the cost of living, particularly from the higher prices of food and energywhile the European Central Bank has advanced interest rate hikes to fight record inflation.
meanwhile, in China a rebound in consumption is expected to support the increase of sales in 2022, although S&P has highlighted that its policies against Covid “add uncertainty in the long term”.
Besides, the tax cut implanted in the Asian country for the sale of certain vehicles between June and December has meant a strong upturn in consumption of passenger cars in the country of between 20% and 30% in the last three months.
“We are raising our March forecast for China with passenger car sales growing to between 4% and 6% by 2022 from 1% and 3% previously. With the demand driven in the second half of this year and our expectation that the economic recovery will remain stagnant in the first quarter of 2023, we anticipate a slowdown in sales growth of between 0% and 2% in 2023,” they added. In this sense, the withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus for the purchase of vehicles could also favor this last prediction, S&P has added.
