( Spanish) — For weeks, there had been speculation about a possible aspiration of former President Donald Trump in the 2024 elections to try to return to the White House.
Now that the ex-president confirmed his aspiration, could he win the elections? Who would be his potential competitors?
Trump’s odds in 2024
Trump’s departure from the presidency, in January 2020, was chaotic.
The Republican had just lost re-election against Democratic candidate Joe Biden (he obtained 46.8% compared to 51.3% for his opponent), when on January 6 a crowd made up of his supporters stormed the Capitol building, where they were finds the United States Congress, in an attempt to keep Trump in power and prevent the rise of Biden.
The images of the violent assault, which included the irruption of the protesters in the recent Senate, went around the world, while Trump refused to condemn the attack and had even harangued his supporters shortly before.
But the assault failed, on January 20 Biden assumed the presidency, and a special commission of Congress continues to investigate the facts to find those responsible for the worst attack on democracy in the United States.
What, then, is the current image of the former president and what chances could he have of reaching the US Presidency again?
Although Trump is a widely known character, he has a very low popularity across the country. according to a NBC poll conducted in September among people registered to vote, 34% of those consulted had a positive image of the Republican, compared to 54% who had a negative image.
These figures are similar to a survey of the Quinnipiac University (34% positive, 57% negative) of August, and another of gallup in January (34% positive, 62% negative).
On the other hand, Trump remains a dominant figure within the Republican Party, and is the favorite to win the internals of the party next year and become the official candidate.
Although its weight is not as great as previously thought, and some Republicans, such as Ron DeSantis, they are on his heels. Even more so after the midterm legislative elections that took place last week, where the Republican Party underperformed, against a rebound from the Democrats, even when Trump himself had put himself in the middle. of the Bell.
Possible opponents of Trump in the Republican primary
These are, according to ranking prepared by Chris Cillizza, from the Republicans with the best chance of becoming the standard-bearers of the party in 2024, behind Trump, who at the moment remains the favorite.
Ron DeSantis — The Republican governor of Florida is the only possible candidate who poses a direct threat to Trump in a presidential primary. DeSantis has a knack for drawing headlines and has garnered considerable support for a deeply conservative agenda in his state, which touched on issues like immigration, education and abortion, among others.
If Trump enters the race as expected, DeSantis will have a very difficult decision to make.
Tim Scott– DeSantis is followed in the ranking by South Carolina Senator Tim Scott. If Trump doesn’t run, he would immediately be one of the frontrunners in the race: He is the only black Republican in the Senate, and he has demonstrated his ability to raise money.
Glenn Youngkin– Another name that could work is Glenn Youngkin. It’s true that he’s only in his first year as governor of Virginia, which raises skepticism, but, in Cillizza’s words, “as Barack Obama should have taught us all, inexperience in national politics isn’t necessarily a bad thing.”
Mike Pence– Not to forget another strong player of the match: Mike Pence. The vice president has a reputation and donor network that is the envy of almost all potential candidates.
Its great con is that it is persona non grata for Trump since he refused to interfere in the certification of the 2020 election results as the then president intended. And even if the former president decides not to show up, it’s possible he could interfere to block it.
Ted Cruz — Cruz, who came in second to Trump in the 2016 primary, is smart enough to know the race is frozen until Trump makes up his mind, but he’s working. For the midterm elections, he planned a trip to three key states for the election of the Republican candidate: Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.
Democratic candidates who could face Trump in 2024
And these are, according to the ranking prepared by Chris Cillizzathe possible Democratic candidates who would lead an internal one within the party.
Joe Biden– If the current president runs, would the overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nominee and most likely will not face a serious battle in the primaries. However, Biden steps aside, the picture is no longer clear.
Kamala Harris — Although his vice presidency has been Somewhat bumpy so far, and she hasn’t lacked for negative headlines, Harris would be a natural candidate if Biden doesn’t run. She carries with her the achievement of being the first woman, black and of Asian descent to become vice president, and she continues to be highly regarded among black voters. This factor, as 2020 made clear, plays a very important role in the choice of the party’s standard-bearer.
Pete Buttigieg — After losing the race for the Democratic nomination in 2020, Buttigieg he turned the first openly gay person to be secretary of a department in the Biden government. As head of Transport, he has had a successful performance (which was about to collapse due to a threat of a rail strike that ultimately did not materialize). There’s no question that Buttigieg is a political talent, but he has yet to show his ability to appeal to non-white voters, something he had a hard time doing in 2020.
Gavin Newson– In fourth place (putting Biden in first)it is located Governor Newson. “What we can say for sure is that if Biden doesn’t run, it looks like the governor of California will.”
The proof? His recent paid advertisements in seven states with Republican governors saying that his state’s abortion is illegal, a move that Cillizza says “has the presidential candidacy written in it.”
Newson will run for a second term in the midterms and is using California as something of an incubator for liberal politics. Another point in his favor is that he could raise the tens of millions of dollars needed to finance a national campaign.
elizabeth warren A second woman appears next in the ranking: Elizabeth Warren. When asked about 2024, the senator has said that she expects Biden to run again and that she will run for re-election to the Senate. But if the president decides to step back, it’s hard to think he won’t try to seize the moment. And she would be well positioned. The niche she carved for herself in 2020, as a candidate with a detailed set of proposals for every issue facing the country, could be attractive to Democrats looking for a successor to Biden.
Bernie Sanders– The independent senator remains well-liked and has clear support from progressives. But beyond the political, he has an insurmountable difficulty: age. A series of recent polls made it clear that Democrats are concerned that Biden is too old to perform the full duties of office and Sanders is two years older than the current president.
With reporting from ‘s Chris Cillizza and Stephen Collinson.
